tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-54523144871869774972024-03-05T16:55:42.827-08:00The Dean ReportWeather, Gardening, Opinion, and More!Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.comBlogger127125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-28937273900084950062015-05-24T16:26:00.001-07:002015-05-24T16:26:35.410-07:00Winter 2014-15 Roundup<div id="dE_H" style="-webkit-overflow-scrolling:touch;;width:100%; height:100%; ;"><br /><div><font face="Arial">This is a quick review of the Winter 2014-15 Outlook. <br /><br />the title "No Guts, No Glory" was indicative of my excitement heading into the season. Even though expected public school disruption goals were met, winter failed to deliver on my hype. </font></div><div><font face="Arial"><br></font></div><div><font face="Arial"> <b>What went Right?</b></font></div><br /><div><br /><font face="Arial"><br></font></div><br /><div><span style="white-space: normal; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><font face="Arial">Our region finished colder than average despite a mild December: The cold came as advertised. For reasons discussed in the next section, we were not as cold as expected:</font></span></div><div><table id="tbl512bb3c2-1a71-47cc-a12a-8741b42d194c"><tbody><tr><td class="rsRnodelete"> <img id="img955e770b-6667-4762-9380-95f4bf8bb95a" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTU_vR5n0Lr5rwLSdoC2A3ZtGA25DvDyOBXLEgUrcLcsUZ_TCEVpdGOmpUvufPRVzl84OvqfHTLSbFs9QEOc5rxBL0OlS9X7oXx7j_bctZeIQBrQhaOxeoH5R24uRpwoFSeCvtuhoSSXA/" mvc="false" class="" style="height: 395px; width: 508px; margin: 0px; resize: none; zoom: 1;"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><br></div><div><font face="Arial"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;">Cold persisted into March and became so severe in the US Northeast that ice still exists in the Great Lakes today. Note how the same map run Jan 1 to March 30 depicts a deepening of the cold anomaly that delayed the onset of real spring in most of the East.</span></font></div><div><table id="tbl01622740-5adf-4282-b32f-6c56edf60f50"><tbody><tr><td class="rsRnodelete"> <img id="img975c46a8-f435-4006-ad80-b21a9f120316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7v-fH1tu4AlrghS-ZEEv7MDnJmaGqQJP8q5Jt0vfgRaezCvLuQLTXt8NpuRyMhFalTXOVMpH4ZhDNSpc1eu6BjFD21zPiRMgoUJJxQ09WHYC3gq2jtVZGJNECjCeakgzAz9v72T1_TpU/" mvc="false" class="" style="height: 395px; width: 508px; margin: 0px; resize: none; zoom: 1;"></td></tr></tbody></table><br></div><div>Therefore the idea of Eastern US Cold was numerically correct overall but the coldest anomalies further NE than expected.</div><div><br></div><div><b>What went Wrong</b></div><div><br></div><div>The short technical reason for what went wrong is the +NAO despite a cold North Atlantic Tripole. In plain English: A feature that normally correllates with warmer, drier winter conditions dominated. In fact, regionally, the big driver of the cold was the mega-High that is fueling the drought in the far West. Cold air was literally pushed SE by that feature leading to overwhelm of what could have been warm.</div><div><br></div><div>Snowfall results north of I-40 in the RDU area were above average. However, icy conditions were the bigher story because ideal snow conditions did not materialize. It was frustrating to see how often warm air would overrun the cold and lead to storms not living up to expectations.</div><div><br></div><div>There is a oscillation of winds in the Stratosphere called the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Ordinarily it would be considered a minor player. This past season it reached record negative (weak warm signal). Perhaps the record strength made the minor influence, a major player? </div><div><br></div><div><b>How Did I Do?</b></div><div><br></div><div>Feedback has been mostly postive. I rate myself a C+ because of wanting the technical details to have been as expected. Even a few instances of North Atlantic blocking (-NAO) could have led to spectacular winter weather. That being said ... all of us were beyond ready for Spring when April warmth began to take over.</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div class="ui-resizable-handle ui-resizable-e" style="height: 202px; z-index: 1000;"></div></div>Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-24447208618142583312015-03-05T10:15:00.001-08:002015-03-05T10:15:31.948-08:00Quick Lunchbreak 5 Mar 2015<div dir="ltr"><div><ol><li>Unbelievable temperature differential! AT 1 PM it is 39 near RDU Airport and 81 NW of Wilmington, NC. Down East ... It is 81 in New Bern and 45-50 across the Pamilico River. <br></li><li>As stated yesterday, cold is King, we are already observing some ice mixed with rain near RDU Airport. Growing concerned that Winter Precip may take over between 3-4 PM instead of later.<br></li><li>Arctic Blast tonight and tomorrow yields to moderate but gray dismal weather next week.<br></li><li>Want more Winter? We are not done yet but finally starting to see its ammo run low.<br></li><li>Celebrate Spring Now! - Why wait until March 21st. You can be officially in Spring RIGHT NOW :>) All you have to do is repeat after me: "I <Your Name> am a Weather Enthusiast". "Weather Spring" started March 1st....<br></li></ol></div><div><br></div><div>That's all for today.... BYE</div><div><br></div>-- <br><div class="gmail_signature">Dean Grubbs<br><a href="http://deanreport.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">The Dean Report</a><br><a href="http://deanreport.blogspot.com" target="_blank">http://deanreport.blogspot.com</a><br></div> </div> Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-69900090583628370022015-03-04T09:54:00.001-08:002015-03-04T09:54:53.649-08:00Quick Lunchbreak 4 Mar 2015<div dir="ltr"><div><ol><li>Next 10 days is looking SAD as in Seasonal Affective Disorder. We are not going to see the sun very much :>(<br></li><li>Freezing Rain/Sleet tomorrow night? Normally, I would downplay the possibility ...but... it is a bad idea to bet against a winner... The Cold has been winning lately....<br></li><li>Yes ... we will make it to the mid-70's today ... then catch the flu tomorrow when record lows are reached that are 50+ degrees colder.<br></li></ol></div><div><br></div><div>That ends this SAD Lunchbreak ..... BYE.....</div> </div> Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-81215547952756742962014-11-29T10:44:00.001-08:002014-11-29T11:01:19.761-08:00Winter 2014-15 Outlook: No Guts No Glory<div id="dE_H" style="-webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch; height: 100%; width: 100%;">
<h2>
<br />Introduction</h2>
Part of posting a forecast publicly is the combination of wanting to be right (even though details are general) and the fanfare that comes with it. Let's be real... No one wants to be wrong or experience the shame of apologizing to the audience. <br />
<br />
The theme of this winter is "No Guts, No Glory" because my expectations are high based on the evidence. I believe that concern is warranted. Our region is surprisingly vulnerable to being shutdown and grocery stores being wiped out. The fact is that the gaps between severe winter events are far enough apart that authorities seem to not be interested in improving winter storm recovery procedures.<br />
This forecast is not intended to be overly technical. You will get more facts and technicality than provided by the local media and learn a few things about the weather. The objective is to inform and educate.<br />
<br />
Now... On with the program...<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Are the Stars Aligned?</span></b></div>
<br />
Not since the legendary winters of the late 70's have so many reasons supporting an exceptional season been in place. The basics of a colder, eventful winter are:<br />
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>Blocking</b>: High Pressure dominating the Arctic. Systems over the Pole and near Greenland shunt colder air and the dominant storm track further south.</li>
<li><b>Tropical Forcing: </b>Some episodes of storminess near the International Dateline is needed to connect with Polar Westerlies to transport heat towards the Pole and send the cold south.</li>
<li><b>Siberia/N. Hemisphere Snow Advance</b>: Above average buildup of snow across Siberia and the High latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during October is well correlated with colder winters.</li>
</ul>
<div>
<b>Note</b>: I did not list "El Nino" on purpose. Weak/Moderate episodes based around the International Dateline help but are not officially required. A non-Nino year can still contain the needed connection from the West Pacifc Tropics and the jet stream.</div>
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<div>
All 3 requirements are lined up to deliver a minimum of a colder, stormer Winter. We also have the right type of El Niño as an added bonus.</div>
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<div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>What the Oceans tell us about the upcoming Winter.</b></span></div>
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<div>
I have seen very few of these perfect Maps in my weather lifetime:</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<table id="tbl1dbbcef8-d000-41c6-aaf3-46d318fe8e61"><tbody>
<tr><td class="rsRnodelete" mvc="false" style="height: 21px; left: 0px; text-align: left; top: 0px; width: 228px;"><b>Ocean Surface Temp Anomalies</b> <br />
<br />
Source: <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/frame_welcome.html">Plymouth Weather Center</a> </td></tr>
<tr><td class="rsYonly" mvc="false"> <img class="" id="img00b952e5-cb97-4952-9b91-85b03519ac3e" mvc="false" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFqkBkYykyGFE9U1eGGdB9BiqDgohAVTMdQ5sLQYUpi2UXnFGlonJgcnhpLUHSSGWABjUFD3ARImHwwmA-OHoZ_Hpn_v6Y-XWV07wZjr1avNUK-qYSgsNe4Hb4K6VGlHS_HNCng__qg_s/" style="background-color: transparent; border-style: none; box-shadow: none; height: 313px; margin: 0px; resize: none; width: 493px; zoom: 1;" /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<ol>
<li><b> Gulf of Alaska and East Pacific Warming</b>: This feature supports a Jet Stream alignment that maintains a ridge in the West and trough in the East.</li>
<li><b>North Atlantic Cool Pool</b>: An important difference from last winter. The cool pool supports a Greenland High Pressure system also known as. -NAO. Should this feature dominate as expected, extended periods of cold and snow/ice episodes will plague the Eastern Seaboard.</li>
<li><b>El Niño</b>: The warm area is migrating towards the Central Pacific. This feature is its weak/moderate state should add opportunities for Winter Storms.</li>
</ol>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Northern Hemisphere October Snowcover</b></span></div>
<br />
<div>
The timing and area coverage of snow in October affect winter outcomes by coating vast areas with a layer of snow that would otherwise still be absorbing heat from the sun. An extensive snowcover reflects heat back into space. The resultant cooling distorts the Polar Vortex leading to downstream intrusions of cold that are already impacting us. <a href="http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php">Rutgers University Snow Lab statistics</a> indicate historic snow advance: ( Data Collection began in 1966).</div>
<ol>
<li><b>Eurasia</b>: <b> </b>Sept and Oct were ranked 8 and 2! </li>
<li><b>North America</b>: 1 and 8.</li>
<li><b>Northern Hemisphere</b>: 3 Both Months.</li>
</ol>
<div>
The build-up is snow is important due to its strong correlation to Central and Eastern US Cold:</div>
<br />
<div>
<table id="tbl5995c4e2-1b20-4599-9b28-7f78aff9f9e2"><tbody>
<tr><td class="rsRnodelete" mvc="false" style="height: 10px; left: 0px; top: 0px; width: 237px;"><a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/">NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory</a>.<br />
<br />
. </td></tr>
<tr><td class="rsYonly" mvc="false"> <img class="" id="imgf780fab8-3ca6-427b-b8ee-93809b67e514" mvc="false" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjmb8f-RnG8EiSrdH1GraqqDiDsDS9xTY6RMPSyCnUs-PFTsY6dL15ai9_IjZbN6npALkfZuQXUfUQKodJ2mXVHAEUUhw-fClI1GHYoEuuQ3DBrICUyDOcnu3f8VnfS7MJ5n03LLL0B9k/" style="height: 442px; margin: 0px; resize: none; width: 403px; zoom: 1;" /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<b>Winter Correlation between Northern Hem. Snow coverage and Winter temperatures</b><br />
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<div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>What you need to Know.</b></span></div>
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<div>
I expect this Winter to rival the legendary winters of the late 1970's in terms of cold, storms, and overall disruption. These are my lofty expectations:</div>
<div>
<ul><br />
<li><b>Prolonged Cold: </b><span style="color: blue;">Temperatures 3-5+ degrees below normal</span>. Expect the trend towards higher electric/gas bills to continue. Packing an emergency kit in each car is recommended to ensure warmth and safety. Being sure that your home has a backup source of heat is also recommended.</li>
<li><b>Snow/Ice</b>: <span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Actual snowfall forecasts for this region are problematic because of ice not being included in long term totals. 1976-77, our coldest winter, recorded 3.5" of snow. The prescence of El Nino should bend our Raleigh-Durham snow totals north of 1977-78 approximately 11" outcome. </span>This season will be remembered for the Nor'easter's. </li>
<li><b>Closing and Delays</b>: Wake County Schools should expect 12-15 days of delays or closings.</li>
</ul>
<br />
<div>
We are overdue for a week+ disruption to transportation, food and grocery supplies. I recommend the following:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>Be Supplied:</b> Maintaining a larger reserve of food and other necessities (like Toilet Paper) so that 5-7 day stretches can be managed comfortably.</li>
<li><b>Secondary Power/Heat</b>: In 2003, a historic ice storm knocked out large stretches of the power grid for days. We are overdue to a similar disruption. Have a plan for what to do if electricity is knocked out. How will you and your family keep warm? Cell phone battery powered chargers are also very inexpensive.</li>
<li><b>Be Home</b>: As recently as last year, horror stories about taking 4-5 hours to drive 2 miles were common during a storm that started in the Triangle around noon. Keep the roads available for those who must work. Work from home if possible. Plan B would be to leave work before the first flake hits the ground. People learned last year how quickly a few flakes progressed to snow covered roads.</li>
<li><b>Be Safe:</b> Enjoying a good snowfall is a lot of fun. Wear proper boots and gloves. Avoid trees and other situations that snow or ice weight can lead to serious injury or death. Know where your sled is going before finding out using the school of hardknocks. Have fun but be smart...</li>
</ul>
<div>
Winter 2014-15 promises to be cold with plenty of opportunities for snow and ice. The potential exists for Central VA through North Central SC to see the worst anyone can remember. Even if we do not achieve those lofty expectations, a memorable winter period will be experienced nonetheless. </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-25909592180252642992014-10-19T11:06:00.000-07:002014-10-19T11:06:30.572-07:00Preliminary Winter Outlook 2014-15<b><span style="font-size: large;">Introduction</span></b><br />
<br />
The Winter Season always has the most interest here in the VA/NC regions. Other seasons rarely contain events that shutdown schools and disrupt daily business as much as Winter. That being said... Central VA saw massive disruption in the 2000 and 2010's caused by:<br />
<ul>
<li>Hurricanes, Isabel and Irene. </li>
<li>A Summer Derecho wreaked havoc on the power grid. </li>
<li>Tropical Storm Gaston (Honorable Mention) damaged areas due to flooding </li>
</ul>
<br />
Winter 2013-14 featured harsh cold across the Eastern US and the more frequent forays into below 10 low temperatures than I remember as a child in the late 70's. Elsewhere, the Great Lakes still contained ice in the areas most hard frozen in JUNE. My theme last Winter was "Go Big or Go Home" based on that expected cold and associated disruption. At the weather level, many of you will know that these terms describe what kept temperatures so cold, so long : -NP, -EPO, +PNA, -AO. Those names describe observations made in the North Pacific, NE of Hawaii, Western US, Canada. Take note that the NAO (North Atlantic) <b>was not a major player</b> last winter.<br />
<br />
Keep in mind the following principles:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b>This is October:</b> While changes are not expected, my final prognostication in late November is subject to change.</li>
<li><b>Weather is a designed mechanism</b>: The weather as a system that was designed by God. This means that study of that system must include an investigation into the purpose of each system. How does a layman apply this? Include economics in the process of observing weather.</li>
</ul>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Now, What You have been Waiting For...</span></b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">What do the Oceans indicate about Winter 2014-15?</span></b></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ1bnEPtJE03yW1TeJeP5NylxROTqRLURzfEzUvXV0LH5PGL1BHZ-M6oTWK9tpD5XdtdUNHjE1bM_R0DUFm3xpA0tqPrAE6n3q7UEP0GUpDQeoh7ysefizQL7irtUZb9mm3s5fxW-p8M0/s1600/SST+Anomaly+16+Oct+2014.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ1bnEPtJE03yW1TeJeP5NylxROTqRLURzfEzUvXV0LH5PGL1BHZ-M6oTWK9tpD5XdtdUNHjE1bM_R0DUFm3xpA0tqPrAE6n3q7UEP0GUpDQeoh7ysefizQL7irtUZb9mm3s5fxW-p8M0/s1600/SST+Anomaly+16+Oct+2014.jpg" height="220" width="400" /></a></div>
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Note: <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDYOC054.shtml" target="_blank">Australia's version</a> is much better than the NOAA. For some reason the chart published by NOAA/NESDIS was changed so that <b>neutral values</b> (-0.5 to +0.5) are 1/2 blue and 1/2 yellow.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<ol>
<li><b>Warm Gulf of Alaska - </b>Based on data in modern times, this is the key to every big winter in the NC/VA region. People like to rave about -NAO but... -EPO/+PNA is a stronger correlation to cold,</li>
<li><b>Cool North Atlantic: </b>This feature is a key reversal that is expected to introduce a dominant <span style="color: blue;">negative NAO </span>into this season's weather equation.</li>
<li><b>Developing El Nino</b>: Pacific and Indian Ocean weather patterns and ocean temps are indicative of a weak/low moderate episode of West Based El Nino (called "Modoki"). This situation provides enough El Nino to keep the mean trough mostly in the East but not so much that rainy cool weather dominates over cold.</li>
<li><b>Warm Gulf of Mexico</b> - Feeds Nor'easters and Nor'easter wanna be 's :>)</li>
</ol>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Winter Wild Card? - What could this mean?</span></b></div>
<br />
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
There is a relationship between October snow buildup in Siberia and the dominance of the -AO cold signal. Data has been kept close to 50 years, not much in the History of the Weather Machine, but enough to raise some questions about how vulnerable we may be to rare weather extremes,</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Talk about what apocalypse could massively disrupt society seems to be on the increase. <span style="color: blue;">My greatest concern is being blindsided by a Killer Winter that leads to massive suffering caused by a combination of terrible cold. </span>The<span style="color: blue;"> </span>electric grid is known to have limits. Natural Gas distribution system was near its limits last year in some regions of the US. The observed impact of $400-$600 electric and heating fuel bills per month on middle class and poor families here in Central NC is huge cause for concern, Being able to set a temperature that is comfortable has health care implications as well. Is an energy policy that prices the poor and lower Middle Class out of reasonable comfort really save the environment or society? </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Let's talk Snowcover...</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
<b>These chart from the <a href="http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/index.php" target="_blank">Rutgers University Global Snow Lab</a> seem to be telling a story.</b></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW7IlPX3Y0BgIVI5kHnrJN8nSpmJH8x_-ZxaGemLjTgmxaNsq1JIw8Rk1Bi7h_sEtMuMvJbWbRKa-__xtFz_Qk3ctuKWtjskGDLEMLWz6ccPXTcyU1l7at9KuU1jgv4TM2-4bdSptZiBw/s1600/Sept+NH+Snow+Anomaly.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW7IlPX3Y0BgIVI5kHnrJN8nSpmJH8x_-ZxaGemLjTgmxaNsq1JIw8Rk1Bi7h_sEtMuMvJbWbRKa-__xtFz_Qk3ctuKWtjskGDLEMLWz6ccPXTcyU1l7at9KuU1jgv4TM2-4bdSptZiBw/s1600/Sept+NH+Snow+Anomaly.jpg" height="275" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Note the spike in snowcover preceding the legendary late 1970's winters<br />and the long steady uptrend channel since 1991.</span></div>
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Notice how the lowest lows were steady in the 1960's and the 1980s but were less prominent in the 21st Century. The 2 distinct snow droughts correlate very well with ideas about the Icecaps allegedly melting and other "Global Warming" beliefs. A good Scientist would warn against responses to to apparent weather until the longer term is better understood.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKDk38mfJc8CjlVOYeEUa9Py01N4ZKmeYkbvvHb17H3FNjTicGUTMiMmE8i3H_PdnwfS-EAV23i6tGkFRZyTyCjjLJUFPdGmZz4IMz2eqbM1yqNASiZL-lPtexgK6hiX-AP1znKzetH7I/s1600/Oct+Snow+Anomalies+up+to+2013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKDk38mfJc8CjlVOYeEUa9Py01N4ZKmeYkbvvHb17H3FNjTicGUTMiMmE8i3H_PdnwfS-EAV23i6tGkFRZyTyCjjLJUFPdGmZz4IMz2eqbM1yqNASiZL-lPtexgK6hiX-AP1znKzetH7I/s1600/Oct+Snow+Anomalies+up+to+2013.jpg" height="291" width="400" /></a><br />October snowcover better correlates with Winter Outcomes.<br />This data stops at 2013. I can tell you that the month <b>started<br />at +4 on the scale</b>.</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Pay attention once again to the prominent snow drought period followed by a ramp-up that could partly explain the eventful winters of the early 2000's in our region, Keep in mind that October 2014 is likely to be a very positive result.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b>My big question</b>: Did the huge circa 1976 spike in snow cover contribute to the legendary winters of 1976-79?</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b>Bigger Question</b>: Since 2009 Severe Winter outcomes have evoked memories of the late 1970's and summoned historical reports from the early 1880's. Must we consider the option that even more severe winter outcomes lie ahead if the trend continues?</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Some are very excited about prospects for a cold snowy winter. I would be excited as well ... except ... the snow data leads me to dig deeper into the potential for outcomes never experienced by the living generations.</div>
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My final outlook will be near or on Thanksgiving Day.</div>
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Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-35073246343555329032014-07-08T18:16:00.001-07:002014-07-08T20:50:37.564-07:00A Midsummer Night's Summer UpdateI cannot believe that once again it is time for the annual midsummer update. Our weather has certainly started differently than the seemingly endless rain and cooler temperatures observed last year. Let's review how the summer began and discuss where we are headed.<p><br></p><h3>Temperatures </h3><p>Image Source: <a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/">NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory</a></p><p><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipOS6CSENigJFJ8oyX6LLeLCj-2zF_eMx_4ffnVJcjXFqEpf2RjH-HjqJ7FB8EGOpXyqWZcvyALSfiQYM3yUQzY_ICawls15897TJLgoTSxwbl7oYCf7Q6v3aBd68GG3R52_oF7iWTRDU/" style="width: 453px; height: 351px;"><br></p><h4>Noteworthy Features:</h4><p>1) Warmest temperatures relative to average are in Northern Canada and to a lesser extent, he SW US and NW Mexico.</p><p>2) Bermuda High dominate the East with warm not outrageously hot. Here in NC, 90's in summer are expected even though late May and early June is more prone to the 80's for highs.</p><p>3) The cool high plains is somewhat La Nina-like.</p><p>4) Warmth NE of Hawaii is supportive.of the Bermuda High that dominated our June.</p><p><br></p><h4>Ground Moisture</h4><p><font face="Times"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Image Source: <a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/">NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory</a></span></font><br></p><p><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1zLuGFzQgO8sMhfDkb5MvOKrRC4Z4nT9vhslGyVQCCLeRLutiI0kcacQUluf8AVT_fPurMF0CjcWPrOOd0txKB-2ZUtNOcEhetHG8Ixyi0-dJjuviY7qmyeAownwfhRxecaMwnrJOqeQ/" style="width: 477px; height: 369px;"><br></p><p>The wettest area in an almost La Nina fashion is the Midwest and Great Plains. Severe drought in the Western US will certainly take its toll in the form of brutal heat (even by their standards) as their long term cyclical dryness feeds back. Not evident on the big map is the mini-drought which I fully expect to reverse over the next few weeks.</p><p><br></p><h4>The State of "El Nino" </h4><p>Data Source: <a href="http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/index.php">The Long Paddock</a></p><p><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJfmihXYK-zxv83AHRdgBty3pSfVkq0PgDRmUY2Yjomu8UB5h43vgjyO3IKCsyXJaAFwiHPJDaQniFTBgFKIuLBdLUFH_RtFRDqNF76AM7JprIno9IjSegJAIinkeGXM9lQlFhBXC-QQA/" style="width: 460px; height: 356px;"> <br></p><p>My intention when seemingly poking fun at un-El Nino-like features when Ocean features and some atmospheric features indicate that one is making a good attempt to form is not to debate whether one is getting underway. It is important to pay attention to the rest of the Globe as well in order to appreciate God's fantastic weather machine and anticipate the effects of features that are not yet cooperating with El Nino influences.</p><p>Oceanic features clearly indicate a forming El Nino. The atmosphere is only partially cooperative. An atmospheric index used over the long term to diagnose the state of ENSO called the Southern Oscillation Index has mostly been negative during the past 30 days yet the big positive spike and lesser one during past few days contributed towards the running 30 and 90 day averages ing neutral. Therefore we should not be surprised to observe weather outcomes that are not typical of El Nino.</p><h4>Medium Range Outlook</h4><p>Image Source: <a href="http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/">University of Wisconsin SSEC </a></p><p><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXmLfmvTReB9nQP_nre0jqMIWOdm8-llNE51pVQ3YqMVRFE1rwFEFuwSgtC_mwzzy2OUVThxCVBdicpW5rxHvdX33MWP3180kmOdDuq-EGfyHCTsSfk_gfFYaqVZINtqpzCFo5xn526Ts/" style="width: 440px; height: 440px;"><br></p><p>1) The Mega Ridge in the Southern Hemisphere is opposite of the summers of recent past when the feature was north of the Equator. Dominance of that system over Australia IS a El Nino feature when present over the long term.</p><p>2) Typhoon Neoguri has turned NE as it approaches Japan. This is a reliable 6-10 day predictor of a trough in the Eastern US.</p><p>3) Tropical energy surging towards a strong storm system that is traversing the westerlies. The location of contact is important because of likelihood of building a Ridge west of Hawaii that reverses the +EPO that is involved in promoting the current Bermuda High. </p><p>Based on the 3 features my expectation is to see a reversal of the heat and a dominance of 80's and increased precipitation here in Central NC and VA. in the 1-2 week timeframe.</p><h4>Long Range - Through the end of Summer</h4><p>1) Hottest part of the summer is over: Broadening wavelengths and the developing El Nino shift the mean trough towards the east coast. Expect more 80's through the last 1/2 of summer.</p><p>2) Big SE Coast Tropical Threat: Unless El Nino forces establish a full dominance ... warm SW Atlantic Ocean and an early summer tropical landfall in the same region are 2 predictors of late season trouble.</p><p>3) Big Winter ahead? - In general, weak to moderate El Nino's bring persistent cold and more snow than usual to Central NC and VA. If some other predictors line up ... then Winter 2014-15 would be very memorable. That being said... we need to observe that El Nino succeeds and does not hard reverse like 2005-06 thus destroying winter.</p>Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-5548063328152008472014-06-02T19:50:00.001-07:002014-06-04T03:06:04.331-07:00Summer 2014 Outlook<h1><b>A New Regime?</b></h1><p>Our regional weather dramatically shifted in summer 2013 into a mild cool pattern that rained buckets. Fall descended into Winter by the end of October. Around Thanksgiving was our first foray into the teens, destroying my salad garden. December - February was a roller coaster that averaged slightly below normal yet featured epic cold that we have not seen in 20 years. The spring that followed was the coldest in history in many locales. I had never seen so many episodes of snow and ice in March even growing up in VA!</p><p>Think back to the summers of 2007-12 when enbelieveable heat ruled the roost. 3 of 5 Winters were non-existent as well. The reason for warmth domination was a warm NW Atlantic that concentrated heat along the Eastern Seaboard and wrecked all but 2 of the Winters. Incidentally, the mega winters of 2009-10 and 10-11 were owed to energy being dissipated into space in the Arctic thereby tanking the Arctic Oscilation to unheard of depths. Unfortunately, heat flooded the mid-latitudes the following summers.</p><p><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">Now, the Great Lakes still have ice in it, now Meterological summer has begun and lows are in the 50 's! The big question is, what does the rest of the summer hold? Are we truly in a new weather pattern or will the ways of the late 2000's return? How about Hurricanes? Except for Irene, NC has enjoyed a respite.</span></p><h1>Summer points to ponder.</h1><h2>To El Nino or La Nada ?</h2><p>El Nino has certainly gotten in the news. Some in the scientific community along with the media ran a hype machine that touted the expectant El Nino as becoming a El Toro. However, the ELEPHANT in the room seems to be an empty hope for 1997-98 like warming instead of a truly scientific search for what is really going on.</p><p>The ocean temperatures seem to clearly indicate an attempt to generate an El Nino as all 4 zones have gone warm. Take note of the dual feed of warmer than average water aimed at the Central Pacific while cold is squeezing the warmth in the east. That alignment makes Winter's crystal ball turn white...</p><p style="text-align: center;"><i>Image from Plymouth State Weather Center.</i></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPFRnbiDr5lOIomRaA353em_bVp_EpXNyTt6q29MabLNaRi6R0Kt_mixiP7NWkXlfEpvY5-onFwciBK_8z6NLLCZ0wCUoqW_7VP4AYUMz6f8LdLBQOmYIarVwHzo7AWOI3pYyBeEmHhWY/"><br></p><p style="text-align: left;">Some might point out the warm expanse across the region must mean that a strong El Nino is coming. Take note of the source region of the warmth in 1997 in the EAST, not Central like this one is headed. Also note the cool Gulf of Alaska that served as a harbringer of the mild winter that swept much of the country.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1997_El_Nino_TOPEX.jpg">Image from Wikipedia</a></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQqNliWK0ANdjQftS_bL795zpFkwK9HQW94u_rwUBaFXD8gN-sujaa6FAGBrNpf3C9RUcd5tBdFwaA9Yy5wvQOpwhjC8iZYQHUv4xgAF86UNs1pUDsO6RaHqvRXH-bEAfY6Aia0rvBXQQ/" style="width: 387px; height: 387px;"><br></p><p style="text-align: left;">IF El Nino was going to be strong then we would also be looking at persistent negative SOI. That measure is used as a tool to determine the trend of the atmosphere. Will it fight the warm water and squash the oscillation 2006 style? Or will it eventually line up to deliver its weatger effects downstream into North America. This graph uses data from The Long Paddock to illustrate what has occurred since Jan 1. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjubgEACOLogbKTOciWhTjgsRQ-A8DCTq8hiiZtFEFfhoYZDVJGgfdrPf0Oi4QmQ4lhxa6ym2pfuDw4OkQ8Kuol_Y1Atj-ULN1bUy2TL_nTDLYihYBxl3VTB1sLE5MXuLUC8HmhVkCPXK0/"><br></p><p style="text-align: left;">Persistent negatives indicate an El Nino. Note the descent that reversed in April, hit a quick low in May and now back in positive territory. The sloshing back and forth is indicative of a Central and West Pacific based El Nino. This final piece of evidence is very important.</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><h2><font face="Times" size="5"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;">Summer Weather Pattern and Temperatures</span></font></h2><p>Ocean temperature and existing drought are often great predictors in our region of how the summer will play out. Phenomena like El Nino and La Nina are capable of ruling the roost when strong and persistent enough but both are more influential in the winter when weaker.</p>
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.amazon.com/ref=assoc_tag_ph_1390604847723?_encoding=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&linkCode=pf4&tag=thedearep-20&linkId=E6NKZBHX6QEG355O">Amazon - Shop. Connect. Enjoy. All from Earth's Biggest Selection.</a><img src="http://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thedearep-20&l=pf4&o=1" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;"><p>The back and forth of weather virtually guarantees somebody is going to be hot/dry, another cool/wet, and often a mild region. This drought map sends a loud and clear message about who will stay hot and dry, the Western US. Due to ridging out West and over TX, it leaves us east of the Mississippi in the trough zone (on average).</p><p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbwy9qMQnyeOSw7K693NT0MJrqOY3r9dP5JGJKQiphuj9fAPtQnFY4Rve8lGlTPm4V3Ae4GuF8F-4lzjY5y584Als4cGG9FzyUqCNv9TdePIuL7s5BrGAteWScST5BhkTmUMuG05e-ql8/" style="width: 440px; height: 348px;"><br></p><p>The message of the Ocean has a sinister side to it. A cooling North Atlantic does not promote large numbers of hurricanes nor persistent Bermuda Highs. Sound good? YEAH!!! BTW: I think that we in NC and VA are in the mild zone. That being written ... warm water close to the East Coast loves hurricanes. This image is provided by the Plymouth State Weather Center.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG4A0FoaeAZKi4fkAfrdvetaKKR7HGqSgtcNFSdxaFvksF8Q8PLl_CNstFP9VtOG8BZXQJlTDs50MJKaDHXqPZAa5JEjKPySzlTfFCb56lZOsBI2SIN-NzqS5x-2o5EVtCIce0EtQUr8s/"><br></p><p style="text-align: left;">An El Nino usually squashes Hurricane Season. As previously discussed and ilustrated, this event is NOT strong and being west based tends to sway back and forth in terms of influence. In my opinion, the door will be open for Hurricane development that would otherwise not be there in 1997-98 East based El Nino's. An argument can be made any year for NC vulnerability. The warmth close to the coast is double jeopardy due to risk of Hurricane Fran-like strengthening upon approach to land. </p><h2>Brass Tax</h2><p>1) Central NC and VA will be cooler than average by 1-2 degrees.</p><p>2) The back and forth nature of the growing west based El Nino should yield a period of upper 90's that would likely be provided by a cool High that overstayed its welcome.</p><p>3) Historically, coastal warm water brings bad news. In addition, TX ridging and a cool Gulf of Mexico lead me towards favoring the activity that is near or hits land to shift to the Eastern Seaboard.</p><p>4) I am having a hard time seeing next winter because the Crystal Ball keeps getting covered in frost and white inside. ..</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p></p><p></p>Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-66423660544190799952014-04-27T14:49:00.000-07:002014-04-27T14:49:16.729-07:00Winter 2013-14 RoundupIn all the Winters I can remember, this one was unique in that it never seemed to end. Also notable was the extreme cold that froze part of Niagra Falls and nearly all of the Great Lakes. Here in Central VA and NC, the season seemed to have something for everyone but unlike the classic Winters failed to end at the usual time.<p><br></p><p>The Official Winter Forecast specified the following characteristics:</p><p><br></p><p>1) <b>Harsh Cold but temperature deviation from Winter only finishing between -1 and -2:</b> I knew that the season was going to be bad when Thanksgiving week lows in the teens destroyed my winter salad garden. However the short periods of extreme warmth led to an overall Dec-Feb anomaly near -1. It does not seem fair that the overall season "looks" near normal despite the suffering. This is clearly a case of the "Devil being in the details". </p><p><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl3W0jL9AXG5Ke7BNSQM1iAJ22hoUHDLgsxWqai-Km4AyFzXa2kl3sz4j8iEKct3AU3Re-J4wvqANCrO8xCy55K3L5bRPJjXmBRntn0NJ4Ci8nVPvHs0maM_42TKsLmX1lfd21-T7gs9U/"><br></p><p>2) <b>School Disruption totaling 7-10 delays, early dismissals, and closings: </b> My bold forecast was not bold enough. I lost count after 10.</p><p>3) <b>Classic "Heart of Winter" Season ends near Valentine's Day: </b>This season chose not to end in the fashion of legendary late 1970's winters. I suspect active Siberian Volcanoes and the rumblings of the pending El Niño combined to extend the season. March was terribly cold and featured multiple rounds of snow and ice in VA and NC. March cold was downright historic! </p><p><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT0Vh8tKDSRDKcGX5_82PtAC3lVSROvVWeNTn_cpvfMiRRT3xX6nFe56otjGtqHdxH6Be601lwTxuV_lOCi4qKnysH2SscLuawF5saJXhRxiGl7ctwypu7Boul67mtkZe11ZGp79Mtb8k/"><br></p><p>4) <b>Ice would be the bigger story in NC than Snow: </b> This prognostication was due to the warm North Atlantic surface temperatures that simply do not favor storm types and tracks that are big snow makers in Central NC and VA. By March, the rise of the Subtropical Jet and effect of horrible cold in the 50-60E, 40-50N region had reversed the situation. It appears very likely that the next Winter will be much different in terms of regional snowfall than this one (HINT HINT). Sleet and Freezing rain were definitely the dominant winter precip this year. Despite that fact, RDU reported about 7" of snow which is near the long term average.</p><p>Now that this winter has passed, I am already been asked about 2014-15. See my answer below:</p><p><br></p>
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<p>IF El Niño plays out the way that I believe, then we can expect a Winter known for persistent cold but far less severity than this year due to the lowest temperatures being 15-20 rather than -5 to single digits! SNOW will be a much deeper player next year, particularly in VA. </p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p><br></p>Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-25485622368108032632014-03-09T11:17:00.000-07:002014-03-09T11:17:32.175-07:00Spring Weather dominates through WednesdayEnjoy the sunny 65-75 degree days through Wednesday evening. At that time a cold front trailing an intense storm will traverse the area bring rain and area east of RT 1, thunderstorms. A brief but sharp cold shot follows. Once again, normal highs for January will appear in March.<br />
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Some good news, it is my opinion that Thursday cold recovers more quickly than forecast, thus 60-65 on Friday and a warm weekend follows.<br />
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Coming soon, Spring and Preliminary Summer Outlook.<br />
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<iframe src="http://rcm-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/cm?t=thedearep-20&o=1&p=13&l=ur1&category=gift_certificates&banner=180TQ0K9X17QCCZQS4R2&f=ifr" width="468" height="60" scrolling="no" border="0" marginwidth="0" style="border:none;" frameborder="0"></iframe>Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-40990356821160654562014-01-16T09:52:00.001-08:002014-01-16T09:52:25.710-08:00Winter is getting set to Explode in the Eastern US<div dir="ltr">It is difficult to maintain objective focus when so many signals are indicating that a brutal cold and stormy period will hit the Eastern US beginning late next week. Further stoking my hype machine is the recent spike in Southern Oscillation Index to +50 indicating a major amplification of the Jet Stream affecting our time zone Jan 29-Feb 1.<div> <br></div><div>Here is a image from the University of Wisconsin SSEC showing some of the factors that have inspired me to warn about the coming of a prolonged cold and stormy period. Keep in mind that the daily SOI reading does not mean anything by itself and does not create weather! Combined with other signals the value is used as a tool to indicate that an amplification (spike positive) or a pattern progression (spike negative) is coming. </div> <div><br></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYMAAF1W0rR3dYAaIbADt9DINMWYDRYeX-JGBbNQRUTZVA-4GR_wNj3Stl9u1qMSKYmIvLWb6-c4zxClWaeoCA4MAgXM_X6lOJehshXnzlsRA6x2OF6KwgSXCLRDN3-3KXE6K-g89xWCk/s1600/image-745711.png"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYMAAF1W0rR3dYAaIbADt9DINMWYDRYeX-JGBbNQRUTZVA-4GR_wNj3Stl9u1qMSKYmIvLWb6-c4zxClWaeoCA4MAgXM_X6lOJehshXnzlsRA6x2OF6KwgSXCLRDN3-3KXE6K-g89xWCk/s320/image-745711.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5969552480575239170" /></a><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br>Dean Grubbs<br><a href="http://deanreport.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">The Dean Report</a><br> <a href="http://deanreport.blogspot.com" target="_blank">http://deanreport.blogspot.com</a><br> </div></div> Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-55344016162320238862013-11-15T20:23:00.001-08:002013-11-15T20:23:55.753-08:00Winter Outlook 2013-14It is time again to ry to figure out how the upcoming winter is likely to unfold, Those of you who follow me on Facebook or in person have a good idea of what is coming in the subsequent paragraphs. Despite not having the best track record in the 2000's (about 50%) my confidence level is pretty high for the upcoming season despite a significant number of outlooks that are much different,<div><br></div><div>One hard lesson that have learned in the 2000's (and look forward to improved accuracy as we progress through the 2010's) is how easy it is to twist logic into a cold winter. I can tell you that there is one decent argument for a warmer, drier season that may not play out as many web outlooks seem to express. I have identified a common feature of the most exciting Central NC/VA winters that is present right now and am choosing to go with it as the variable that will rule the heart of winter.</div><div><br></div><div>Analyzing Sea Surface Temperatures for clues about the upcoming weather pattern is where we begin. The below map is courtesy of the Plymouth State University Weather Center:<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRCVOh1GZJEv83WUTj88WuIAgKkl5Nw6AVFJ6qWs2N8jM32oaCNOktTP6UG5LtnkwB28wUYw2Ei0i2RgJtRE-c6BKGEMkzMwErg0KnbL7jzVWjW8QEGHc9BkfbVRblaI98cXZ1dydbhng/s640/blogger-image--207270941.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRCVOh1GZJEv83WUTj88WuIAgKkl5Nw6AVFJ6qWs2N8jM32oaCNOktTP6UG5LtnkwB28wUYw2Ei0i2RgJtRE-c6BKGEMkzMwErg0KnbL7jzVWjW8QEGHc9BkfbVRblaI98cXZ1dydbhng/s640/blogger-image--207270941.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">1) <b>Gulf of Alaska Warm Pool: </b>This feature was missing last winter and seems to be a very relable indicator that more opportunities for snow or ice will affect the SE and Mid-Atlantic at the best possible time in the heart of winter. The resultant trough position NE of Hawaii is known as the -EPO. It correlates very well with Eastern US Cold.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">2) <b>Slighty Warm W Tropical Pacific:</b> Paired with cold water near N Austrailia, this yields a neutral-warm Nino 3.4 Zone which if holds through the winter will be a source of energy for the jet stream (but not too much ). The cold air encourages higher surface pressure, and in my opinion leads to bouts of negative Southern Oscillation Index that provides pulses of energy that will provide the needed split flow that leads to the big eastern US storms when the branches phase,</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">?) <b>Atlantic Ocean </b>- The North Atlantic warmth is called the +AMO. When that feature is strong, it is a winter killer. Normally, one prefers subtropical ocean warmth and a bigger cold pool in the North Atlantic, IF the area that is circled is truly warming then that signals a 2009-10 style next drainage of cold air aimed SE. Those who are ignoring the Pacific in favor of the Atlantic are most likely keying on N Atlantic warmth and the unfavorable stratospheric winds for early WInter -NAO. My conclusion is that early and mid-December is going to be warmer than average. When the upper level winds begin to shift near Christmas <GULP!> there is likely to be a big change in the weather.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Other Factors</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>1) Solar Activity: </b>Even though he current solar cycle is at the maximum, somebody needs to inform the sun! Low solar activity mostly correlates with colder winters and more high latitude blocking.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>2) Golden Sunsets: </b>My personal indicator that Volcanoes have been busy. Greater particulate matter in the high latitude stratosphere is another correlation to a colder winter. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>3) Siberian/Canadian Snowpack: </b>The rapid expanse of Siberian snow in October is an indicator that the cold air supply will be loaded up for journeys over the pole and into North America.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The Outlook</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Refer to the below map:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqzMgjINCR2kxBZsxwu3ynluZUPkOR89NdnGS4_PBy9YrmMuC4wdDx2AQtTWQrdKcrrjJ0WYNDJPgCzRczrh4oDhXBIz6Qqhmr_fSHwoMxTgUaUsu4qkjL-Oo1F5wZqNdhwHY6hjXNtiw/s640/blogger-image--667743958.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqzMgjINCR2kxBZsxwu3ynluZUPkOR89NdnGS4_PBy9YrmMuC4wdDx2AQtTWQrdKcrrjJ0WYNDJPgCzRczrh4oDhXBIz6Qqhmr_fSHwoMxTgUaUsu4qkjL-Oo1F5wZqNdhwHY6hjXNtiw/s640/blogger-image--667743958.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>1) Rest of November: </b>Winter patterns like the one that I expect often feature a <b>measurable snow or ice between now and early December.</b> We saw snow this week but there seems to be a better opportunity between the 24th and early December.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>2) December: </b>Winter seemingly ends early and there could be a downright balmy period. Around Christmas <GULP!> expect a reversal!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>3) January: </b>Could the warm Atlantic be really signalling that this is a big ice year for Central NC/VA? Expect frequent bouts of cold, harsh at times, with ample opportunity for storm systems to take advantage.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>4) February: </b>A good reason to celebrate Valentine's Day? The end of "The Heart of Winter" means the end of winter.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Temperatures</b>: The winter will likely be remembered as being colder than its average, I think that the warm 3 weeks in December and last 1-2 week of February will probaly balance the heart of winter to make the total within 1-2 degrees of average,</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Precipitation</b>: Totals close to average, We could easily have a winter that damaging ice is the big story. If that happens, snowfall totals will be low even though the frozen precip will be high. It depends on how much warm influence the Atlantic can extert inland.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">My overall expectation is for a disruptive winter that costs 7-10 snow days (incl. late arrival or early release). I remember a season like this one that shut down my Church for a MONTH due to a frozen, unplowable parking lot! The once-in-a-lifetime 20" snowstorm occured in 2001 (it snowed 2-3" the previous November!). In the first week of Dec 2003 there was a devastating ice storm, after a long break in the action Jan and Feburary were action-packed including 12" in 2 storms to fnish the season (Johnston and Harnett got their 15-20" snow that year). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Am I being a bit too bold? Perhaps ... but I like the setup for big events this winter...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div></div>Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-81043363422148951132013-10-15T17:55:00.001-07:002013-10-15T17:57:08.887-07:00Autumn about to Free-Fall as October comes to a CloseA cold front that is the leading edge of polar air is pushing through Canada en route to an East Coast arrival late next week. Projections that are this far out are hard to trust but the SOURCE of the cold being above the Arctic Circle is an indicator that Va and perhaps even Central NC faces a threat for frost near Oct 25-26.<div><br></div><div>Take a look at this Satellite Image from the <b>University of Wisconsin SSEC</b>.</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbWHoDnGJ1Kf-jWcpOJ_zs4RmcQ7LpErofD7OvECm9FXEmOumI-miPDAAG4h3OlfhpRev6jlkfqs3UB2hLvaQ0R-jKlW4dAv734-H_QXNfKd2GLoqvjC05DNLimcerVjohF6gerXyx9Ao/s640/blogger-image-803524038.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbWHoDnGJ1Kf-jWcpOJ_zs4RmcQ7LpErofD7OvECm9FXEmOumI-miPDAAG4h3OlfhpRev6jlkfqs3UB2hLvaQ0R-jKlW4dAv734-H_QXNfKd2GLoqvjC05DNLimcerVjohF6gerXyx9Ao/s640/blogger-image-803524038.jpg"></a></div><br></div><div>The cold is still in the Yukon but coming this way! The weather pattern seems to be clearly indicating that we are headed into a cold November. This cold air is only the beginning.</div><div><br></div><div>I know that there is a great deal of interest in Winter. My own projections are coming soon and I expect that there will be some excitement as Autumn chill paves the way to a classic East Coast cold Winter.</div>Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-71357092650783002972013-07-17T17:59:00.001-07:002013-07-17T18:08:20.048-07:00A big difference between recent blazing Summers and this oneI noticed something huge, as big as the West Pacific Ocean that is different than previous summers. Take a look a the water vapor filling the whole region. <b>Satellite images are from the University of Wisconsin SSEC.</b><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGok_ijZ87L31ruZNMLfNi4NUwg_jSfigB_ufxJ0i_Nzdk5vxXqX9rzwSeQuFAGVZErlFntJXfWJnFz7oHC_AyeUuazvT7mjjz3CrRQsbW0WXWDfomFpy15YjOAunTkRX-mhdCODMIcrY/s640/blogger-image-475726881.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGok_ijZ87L31ruZNMLfNi4NUwg_jSfigB_ufxJ0i_Nzdk5vxXqX9rzwSeQuFAGVZErlFntJXfWJnFz7oHC_AyeUuazvT7mjjz3CrRQsbW0WXWDfomFpy15YjOAunTkRX-mhdCODMIcrY/s640/blogger-image-475726881.jpg"></a></div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div>Now take a look at June 2011 (last year was the same but there were no good shots.</div><div><br></div><div style="text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><img class="CSS_LIGHTBOX_SCALED_IMAGE_IMG" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvNb4up6iTwJ5tnzm3HsDrGKk2FcWz9zZ8m-h1lTzo3hwnoUXQ8JiMYLQHrOLVariaS2sE_7yUKotJLyfn5O-vWGvNb5YQ_DO3lxJ2wniX_bNX9iqOV20wD0mm7dGWBJuAvzP5sWprPX0/s1600/Tropical-Mid-Latitude+Connection-730897.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; outline: rgb(0, 0, 0) solid 1px; position: relative; text-align: center; width: 717px; height: 545px; "></span></div><div style="text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><br></span></div><div style="text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;">The dark area in the middle latitudes was built by a strong jet stream. The subsequent mega-ridge was a persistent feature for more than a year, disrupting weather patterns worldwide by locking extremes in place.</span></div><div style="text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;"><br></span></div><div style="text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;">While the weather is never based only on 1 factor. It is great to take a feature off the table that literally fried us, 3 out of the past 4 summers.</span></div>Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-3641734628875549222013-06-06T19:52:00.001-07:002013-06-06T19:53:17.304-07:00What does TS Andrea and a Winter Storm have in common?The neat thing about TS Andrea is that there is nothing I can tell you about the track, expected rainfall, ...etc... that has not been consistently forecast. However, take a look at this evening's satellite image courtesy of the University of Wisconsin SSEC.<div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIZRIrH0IrjM2TNf2Ewi7SodwQVLr5H37jEAtdtLltWMwVQoSleQV1zBgzLCliy34A96_nsjVHsiP49j9kBXgGTBHvxZg4Uhu3A_qZRXDCkkm1W-Kdjjmkd9j-Z5JKy5SiSZUpMW0qK5Y/s640/blogger-image--1709591182.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIZRIrH0IrjM2TNf2Ewi7SodwQVLr5H37jEAtdtLltWMwVQoSleQV1zBgzLCliy34A96_nsjVHsiP49j9kBXgGTBHvxZg4Uhu3A_qZRXDCkkm1W-Kdjjmkd9j-Z5JKy5SiSZUpMW0qK5Y/s640/blogger-image--1709591182.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There are many reasons to be awed by the weather. Take a look at the overall size of TS Andrea (1) and the involvement of the other two non-tropical systems. The hybrid/<i>baroclinically enhanced</i> nature of Andrea is apparent as she maintains a banded structure in her NW and NE quadrants yet has an impressive warm front, a dry slot and a trailing frontal system still drawing heat and moisture from the deep tropics.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The trailing storm system (2). is being drawn into Andrea's structure much like a typical upper low that shadows major winter storms. System #3 is a typical leading system that provides a trailing front that paves the way for heavier system.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There is no doubt that we are in for several inches of rain along and near the track. </div><br></div>Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-58672632533383532482013-06-04T17:40:00.001-07:002013-06-04T17:40:35.370-07:00It is time to start posting again!I really did not go anywhere. Sometimes transitions in life can derail person from hobbies and interest. There will definitely be much to write about through the summer. <div><br></div><div>My rest of summer forecast is in progress....</div>Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-21223208207567115712013-01-26T18:18:00.001-08:002013-01-26T18:18:56.188-08:00Ice Fog in the Garner - Clayton Area Be Careful<span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',tahoma,verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:13px;line-height:18px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">Ice Fog is developing at least in the Clayton-Garner area (Thanks Matt and Jessica </span><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',tahoma,verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:13px;line-height:18px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"> for reporting this) This is rare here in NC. Please be careful driving and even walking out there because a fine layer of ice may buildup on any exposed surface.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',tahoma,verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:13px;line-height:18px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"> <br style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',tahoma,verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:13px;line-height:18px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',tahoma,verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:13px;line-height:18px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">There will be some great photo opportunities tomorrow morning of frost covered trees and other surfaces.</span><br clear="all"> <div><br></div><br> Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-615799232420720652012-12-30T19:37:00.001-08:002012-12-30T19:37:23.793-08:00Is Winter Over? <span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">There is a great deal of consternation about whether we are going to have a winter. A little snow/ice could happen as soon as this Thursday here in NC, maybe no t so much in VA. In the bigger picture, longer range models are simply not f</span><span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">avorable for cold or snow (There are some climate model exceptions).<br /><br />So ... how do we settle the dilemma? Pay more attention to the actual weather and less to Computer Weather Models being at odds with Climate Models.<br /><br />The Stratosphere is warming over the Arctic. That feature correlates very well with sending real cold southward. Therefore any model showing anything more than a temporary warm-up that transits warmth north to build blocks should be questioned. Below is the current cross-section of the polar vortex. The upper atmosphere warmth is full column.<br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm25QgLsvtFuW9lrBqRv2PgOqhLmw3u0f8sFPHlgEN2e6TmIKBP24xEQMZLDcmrxZXooWoq72hWkcbGOhCImtyBOoMv-o9keJOmrOSK0snxHOrsMi2gAVsGuO8ex_5DFRsuGGwgWYr0wg/s1600/NH+Cross-section.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm25QgLsvtFuW9lrBqRv2PgOqhLmw3u0f8sFPHlgEN2e6TmIKBP24xEQMZLDcmrxZXooWoq72hWkcbGOhCImtyBOoMv-o9keJOmrOSK0snxHOrsMi2gAVsGuO8ex_5DFRsuGGwgWYr0wg/s400/NH+Cross-section.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px;">The Arctic Stratosphere is warming.<br />This event is highly correlated with mid-latitude cold.<br />Image Source: <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.ao.cdas.gif">NOAA Climate Prediction Center</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So... what we have right now is a predictor of cold weather to come. Projections support the idea of a terrible middle to end of the month. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">This image is a 10 day projection near the top of the stratosphere showing the warming in the Arctic and cold displaced deep into the US. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKDu6Z0s2j8nAp74qYK8ZgWEl531L4Efp6DCZdKBtra2ZSA9cclynqx_NeC9pgrPrdLSczr-fX-No4MAr37lvIab72xgJnaTIEqRpvdsVi5CQBGdJHQyV-NG1w-DoP5VrpRCg8Mr4vNik/s1600/gfs_t10_nh_f216.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKDu6Z0s2j8nAp74qYK8ZgWEl531L4Efp6DCZdKBtra2ZSA9cclynqx_NeC9pgrPrdLSczr-fX-No4MAr37lvIab72xgJnaTIEqRpvdsVi5CQBGdJHQyV-NG1w-DoP5VrpRCg8Mr4vNik/s400/gfs_t10_nh_f216.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">If this projection verifies then the Eastern US is in trouble.<br />Notice the warm area off the SE Coast, a stormy signal?<br />Image Source: <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f216.gif">NOAA Climate Prediction Center</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">In previous years this kind of formation has sacked Great Britain and the rest of Europe with some Little Ice Age - like winter weather. Our continent would seem to be overdue for something that severe despite the cold conditions that dominated 2009-10 and 2010-11. While we suffered those years, Europe SUFFERED. </span><br />
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;"><br />The question is whether we get some tropical forcing in the West Pacific and a jolt of energy to bring real winter into the Eastern US. I suggest watching Alaska. If that state trends warmer than it would suggest that High Pressure there will push the colder air SE. Another region to watch is Mexico, a persistent jet stream crossing that country from the Pacific would represent a lowering of pressure to draw the cold in and introduce more Winter Storm opportunities.<br /><br />So, its time to go back to basics. Follow the satellite images and the overall weather to solve for downstream effects, While the Stratospheric warming event is not a perfect correlation to cold here in the SE US ... it is good enough to question weather models that would lead one to believe that winter is dead.</span><br /><span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">Here is a great New Year's Resolution: Follow actual weather more and models less ....</span>Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-22727819178132968782012-11-19T20:34:00.001-08:002012-11-19T20:34:21.890-08:00A Case for a Cold Stormy WinterA combination of a Negative NAO and Negative AO in October has a strong correlation to Eastern US cold and/or snow. Those who want to roll the dice on a cold, stormy winter can look to 2002-03, 2009-10 during this decade. I do have to mention that the indices were strongly positive in October preceding legendary winters like 1977-78. It is interesting that snowy winters like 1981-82, 1968-69, and 1960-61. I discounted 1974 because it was a blazing La Nina year. 2006 is an oddity because it was a promising El NIno Winter which the phenomena simply shut down.<div> <br></div><div>So, we have an argument for cold, stormy winter. The fact that the legendary winters were excluded might be an indicator of the correlation working in </div><div>+AMO (Warm North Atlantic) situation but not so much when it is negative. There is no such thing as a perfect linear correlation in weather.</div> <div><br></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3JKQT3zoBIr3lj35druJBrtiILJTI9AYxHznlPjCFSWIZwVJr7g_QxBwi7BcF88Ov7zXkEtTSOmzdsrlZFt5rtw8BbPAitNgI3SmpjnPHSy1XyIRUv7834IVNklVI1yHvfKNv3FqELNg/s1600/image-761890.png"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3JKQT3zoBIr3lj35druJBrtiILJTI9AYxHznlPjCFSWIZwVJr7g_QxBwi7BcF88Ov7zXkEtTSOmzdsrlZFt5rtw8BbPAitNgI3SmpjnPHSy1XyIRUv7834IVNklVI1yHvfKNv3FqELNg/s320/image-761890.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5812748877237547762" /></a><br></div><div style="text-align:center"><b>Data Source</b>: NOAA Earth Science Laboratory</div><div style="text-align:center"><br></div> <div style="text-align:left">This composite Temperature anomaly from the NOAA Earth Science Laboratory covers the bonafide El Nino Winters featuring a -NAO/-AO below -1.00 in October (I excluded 2006). The pattern of cold is what I believe will resemble the upcoming winter.</div> <div style="text-align:center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKpe8uwLJvRLcBsQAJby0wq5AmC48j6tg1Ig306ekTyhX3tcmIkNjUNLF5o8W2w9AcTsI-euK3yriAvjT_q2jbkv8TfB190woAFL_h-kNckaJ-XE2ejAySN5Cx4OVgnJfCSwL7WM8AoD4/s1600/image-765232.png"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKpe8uwLJvRLcBsQAJby0wq5AmC48j6tg1Ig306ekTyhX3tcmIkNjUNLF5o8W2w9AcTsI-euK3yriAvjT_q2jbkv8TfB190woAFL_h-kNckaJ-XE2ejAySN5Cx4OVgnJfCSwL7WM8AoD4/s320/image-765232.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5812748888396902034" /></a><br></div><div style="text-align:center"><br></div><div style="text-align:left">This is a composite of Sea Level Pressure anomaly. Take note of the lowest pressure being at the 50N/50W position that argues for my idea that the upcoming season can be dubbed the Winter of the Nor'easters. 50/50 Lows favor snow/ice in NC and VA. This data is also from the NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory.</div> <div style="text-align:left"><br></div><div style="text-align:center"><img src="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/174.109.126.235.323.21.28.40.png" alt="This plot is not dissimilar to the PNA"></div><div style="text-align:left"> That's all for now. Later this week it will be time to discuss a potentially really cold start to December.</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br> </div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><div><br></div><br> </div> Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-61108874805746337342012-11-14T19:47:00.001-08:002012-11-14T19:47:09.735-08:00Finally! The Winter 2012-13 Forecast<b>To El Nino or not, Is that really the question?</b><div><br></div><div>Here in NC and VA many El Nino winters are loved because they do tend to be colder an usually contain a few good winter storms. La Nina, on the other hand, is maligned for warm, dry, winters that lead to hot summers full of bugs and pests. Therefore, the first question usually asked is whether to label a winter as an El Nino or La Nina.</div> <div><br></div><div>Occasionally we see the crazy La Nina's like 1976-77 and 2010-11 which blocking develops in NE Canada and leads to endless cold. There are also occasional El Nino's that feature warmth closer to South America that lead to endless gray 40-50 degree rainy days. Thus, while the labels have some reliable generalities, I think it is a good idea to analyze the whole globe for clues. The fact is that it takes a moderate to strong El Nino or La Nina to rule the roost.</div> <div><br></div><div><b>What are the Oceans telling us?</b><br> <br> </div><div>There is always the question of whether the ocean temperatures are being driven by the atmosphere, "Top-Down" , or vice versa (Bottom Up). A good winter El Nino features plenty tropical storminess near the Dateline. I find another feature even more interesting. Look at the Ocean Temp anomalies below:<br> <br></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3PeTCtyzkDXZzG2bX2HHHZyyx2dq5vjIJiDlWVa_AKNDIFZNYfilJOmS73Dl7eqSuPT13fPWRDEpIOEIvPngJaoou8b54I195sAMCYPgqgsxjL2C5PVc_xkNxWz5vd7Rp3Nhn_-RRT5Q/s1600/image-729737.png"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3PeTCtyzkDXZzG2bX2HHHZyyx2dq5vjIJiDlWVa_AKNDIFZNYfilJOmS73Dl7eqSuPT13fPWRDEpIOEIvPngJaoou8b54I195sAMCYPgqgsxjL2C5PVc_xkNxWz5vd7Rp3Nhn_-RRT5Q/s320/image-729737.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5810881288452958098" /></a><br><div style="text-align:center">Source: <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/">Plymouth State University Weather Center</a></div></div><div style="text-align:center"> <br></div><div style="text-align:left"><ol><li><b>Warm east of Hawaii, Cold Gulf of Alaska:</b> This feature appears to be stable and promotes a -EPO. An indicator of a cool to cold Winter if the signal holds through the season.</li> <li><b>Warm pool near Mexico: </b>Promotes low pressure at that location. This promotes drainage of cold air from the north and a subtropical jet stream.</li><li><b>Oops!</b>, I skipped 3 but do not want to re-do the Chart :>)</li> <li><b>El Nino?</b>: Sort of.... warm water in the right place to promote low pressure and feed the all important Jet Streams. I think just enough but not too much.</li><li><b>Cold Water near Darwin, AU</b>: Tropical cold water promotes High Pressure. At that location it would mean a downhill slide to #4.</li> <li><b>Cold Southeastern Seaboard</b>: This can be an indicator of cold to come if the water is caused by rain and cool Autumn.It can also be a bummer that promotes NC and parts of VA being skipped instead of targeted by Nor'easters.</li> <li><b>Neutral Water near Greenland, ice already east, but warm further south</b>: Too much -NAO snows on LA, MS, AL, FL, GA, and SC, while skipping us. That signal is very mixed in regards to the NAO. Winters with plenty of fluctations seem to be the most exciting. Tough read...</li> </ol><div>The oceans seem to be indicating a much different Winter than the non-winter of 2011-12. There are definitely ingredients for a season that is biased cold with enough "El Nino" around to send storms into the Gulf of Mexico to the East. The cold water near the SE Coast is not something Winter lovers want to see unless it is being caused by the atmosphere ("Top Down") and not given a chance to feedback. Hurricane Sandy and 2 Nor'easter non-effects on NC and limited in VA has me worried that a Confluence (Skip Zone) might be out there.</div> <div><br></div><div><b>Other Signs and Wonders</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div>The beautiful colorful sunsets this autumn and feverish Squirrel activity are 2 observations also supporting a cool to cold winter. I don't think an acorn from our Oak Tree has even hit the ground!</div> <div><br></div><div><b>More Seriously...</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div>While I have my concern,,,, this appears to be a 2003-04 type winter that featured 2 snows and a mega-icestorm. There will be plenty of back and forth swings in the SOI, plenty of frontal passages, and a base state that is cooler than average in the east (-EPO). I am also impressed by blocking in the West Polar Pacific (called the -WPO) which, if it is stable through winter would provide an ample supply of Siberian air.</div> <div><br></div><div><b>So, in a nutshell:</b></div><div><br></div><div><ul><li>At least 2 degrees colder than average.</li><li>Plenty of storm, opportunities should yield 2-3 disruptive winter storms. Hopefully the traditional school calender does not end in late June 2013.</li> <li>If we go through December and see NC and VA being skipped by Nor'easter, it will be time to lower expectations about snow,</li></ul></div></div> Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-30921530178944447622012-10-29T09:14:00.001-07:002012-10-29T09:14:11.462-07:00Thought about Sandy as she approaches NJ<div>The long wait for Sandy is over. As she approaches the coast the "Hurricane" aspect will rapidly transform to a full blown Nor'easter. Similar to Irene (2011) expect belts of high wind and heavy rain/snow to form far away from center.</div> <div><br></div><div>At the center of the system, the wind will become a non-event b/c of a lack of pressure gradient. The big problem (also similar to Irene - 2011) is the central pressure of 943 mb (Strong Category 3) that may yet reach the Category 4 range. Expect storm surge flooding well above and beyond the bogus Category 1 designation given to the system right now.</div> <div><br></div><div>One of my lingering concerns is the storms hurricane force+ winds being displaced up to 175 mile s SW of the Center. Could this imply that those well SW of the Center could see the highest inland winds?</div> <div><br></div><div>My expectation continues to be that Central VA, north and east of RIC will see top wind gusts in the 60 mph range (original expectation 50-70 mph). Here in RDU, the National Weather expects gusts to 45 mph. There is some argument to go a tad higher but... what's 5-10 mph among friends? On the other hand ... we do not seem to be a very windy area.</div> <div><br></div><div>Stay safe and stay informed about the weather. Sandy is a historic storm with a 1000 mile sphere of influence. I am sure that there are variables that are not being well accounted by weather models.</div> <div><br></div><div>I am impressed with the overall 72 hour accuracy of model solutions in regards to the track of the center. It will be interesting to see what happens after the storm completes it Nor' ricane to Nor'Easter cut-off low transformation.</div> <div><br></div><br> Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-85947343368022735092012-10-25T19:28:00.001-07:002012-10-25T19:28:05.171-07:00Hurricane Sandy a massive scale is bad news for Eastern USMy long breaks between writing have been unavoidable. Winter is coming, therefore I know there will be plenty to write about. Also my job transition is coming more under control.<div><br></div><div>The subject right now is Hurricane Sandy. She is already transitioning to a massive nor'easter with a tropical core en route to a probable disastrous impact on the middle and north eastern seaboard and thousands of square miles inland, The satellite image below shows the tremendous inflow from across the equator and from the central Pacific. </div> <div><br></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV3R3j8Wdoj_Igu25y2gGWO6REIWsQBAWCebpVvfsa6lXf3PnTpjXV4Qyk3twDqg1RryJTSmi8KcrLBTCqH3ri-r2HTlVJ6VX6E1y8auZXvizRxEoG1I4Cy8e1SKpm5zeS_xR8iuLwopA/s1600/image-785172.png"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV3R3j8Wdoj_Igu25y2gGWO6REIWsQBAWCebpVvfsa6lXf3PnTpjXV4Qyk3twDqg1RryJTSmi8KcrLBTCqH3ri-r2HTlVJ6VX6E1y8auZXvizRxEoG1I4Cy8e1SKpm5zeS_xR8iuLwopA/s320/image-785172.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5803439206900212258" /></a><br clear="all"><div>Hurricane Sandy well on the way to becoming a Nor-icane (Hybrid Storm)<br>Image Source: University of Wisconsing SSEC</div> <div><br></div><div>This storm is not going to live the life of a traditional Hurricane that hits land and fades quickly. This system will not only make its presence known in the form of gale and hurricane force winds but also coastal flooding and even snow! </div> <div><br></div><div>Tomorrow, we will look at the storm track and projected impacts. Now that Sandy is on the move speculation will transition to greater accuracy in forecasting. The ECMWF 3 PM run was particularly disconcerting because of a direct hit on the DelMarVA peninsula followed by a track into North Central VA. Regardless of where she hits, there will be a lot of damage done. If she took that more SW route then my friends and family along I-95 from RIC on north would get their 3rd hurricane-force impact in less than 10 years! </div> <div><br></div><div>Have a good night! It's going to be a long weekend.</div><br> </div> Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-66489047837059774052012-08-28T17:53:00.001-07:002012-08-28T17:53:40.332-07:00Massive Hurricane Issac strengthens as he closes in on landfallIt is still important not to focus on the wind speed as much as the pressure and the size of the system. Hurricane Issac's central pressure is 970 mb, a strong Category 2. Storm surge near and east of the landfall will very likely be well above what one would expect off a Cat 1. Take a look at the massive sphere of influence that Issac has in the below water vapor image. Take notice of the tremendous inflow from the deep tropics and the buildup of heat and moisture at the SE US Coast which is far away from the storm center.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfgBZgQLcTP2vzSzRKz-lVNzToao5TItceETuFhK-cvQWXUABOA7Vy-Euir-11j63KRzTUQ5KLQbZrP5AgcgW2S2RQKxEnM0DCug_4LG8I4yy1ybj2EM9oHybXiJn_Fd_nyc4UGpwpu7w/s1600/Issac_08282012_830PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfgBZgQLcTP2vzSzRKz-lVNzToao5TItceETuFhK-cvQWXUABOA7Vy-Euir-11j63KRzTUQ5KLQbZrP5AgcgW2S2RQKxEnM0DCug_4LG8I4yy1ybj2EM9oHybXiJn_Fd_nyc4UGpwpu7w/s400/Issac_08282012_830PM.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Anytime a storm has this influence, it means business!<br />Image Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC</td></tr>
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Issac still has about 12 hours over water. I would not be surprised to see Category 2 wind speed at landfall and a Category 3 pressure. We really need to hope and pray for a landfall point less unfavorable to New Orleans. No one is interested in seeing the city fill with water again.<br />
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<br />Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-38082542277545786902012-08-27T16:58:00.002-07:002012-08-27T16:58:36.560-07:00If the NHC will not promote Issac to Hurricane, I will!<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">Even though the NHC calls Issac a 70 mph Tropical Storm. I confer upon the storm the title of Hurricane. Issac's 981 mb central pressure is at the low end of Cat 1 (almost Cat 2) and the Eye is becoming apparent. Therefore based on the </span><br />
<div class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">
Saffir-Simpson Scale (The detailed description) Issac easily fits into Cat 1.<br /><br />Last year's devastating storm Hurricane Irene was a "Category 1" that contained a central pressure of 942 (Category 4!). People stayed in the impact area who would have fled. There was a miraculous preservation of life despite the flooding + amazing local wind damage for a "Category 1" storm.<br /><br />So, when you examine the stats of the hurricane factor in the Central Pressure when determining likely impacts. Even though the highest measured wind speed may be low it does not mean that the ability to produce small scale wind events of much greater damage potential does not exist. The worse problem near the coast was the record storm surge at Oriental, NC, easily equal to a Cat 4 hurricane. Another argument against Irene being only a Cat 1 was her wide area of damaging influence. 60-80 mph winds spread up the I-95 corridor, far from center.<br /><br /><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_Hurricane_Scale#Category_1" rel="nofollow nofollow" style="color: #3b5998; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_Hurricane_Scale#Category_1</a></div>
Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-34861390309159115962012-08-26T17:20:00.002-07:002012-08-26T17:23:30.557-07:00TS Issac appears to be making the LA Coast his targetThose following me on Facebook know the questions and consternation about the destiny of TS Issac. At first my thought was that the -SOI from Aug 7 - 15 would have successfully introduced a progressive weather pattern thus turned the storm toward the east coast of FL and the SE Coast. It appears that 2 years of blocked weather patterns are not easily swept away.<br />
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The biggest winner so far in determining the TS Issac track has been <a href="http://wxrisk.com/">WxRisk.com</a>. David Tolleris correctly chose the Central Gulf as the target zone. Now that Issac is past the disruption of dry air and Hispaniola + Cuba we will now see the various tools used to determine the track of the system become more accurate.<br />
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In the Water Vapor image below I highlighted the frontal system stretching across the middle of the country and the current direction of the moisture plume preceding Issac. Eventually Issac's circulation will be influenced by the front and be turned right. The question is whether that influence and the weakness between the Bermuda High and the Inland heat ridge draws the storm sooner or later.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjALTUIKaHNCS_o_w1vwoYmGyodVMTgXkpuLunT3Pr88biVj-ltlasbgFw5YaHHjhil6hKii2uKrDz78abMzVCAmd_Bk28VKQPv4xczc8butGm6Pbxg8PHdoxrutZTlRJdTa-LY3AUQydo/s1600/TS_Issac_WV_082612_800PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjALTUIKaHNCS_o_w1vwoYmGyodVMTgXkpuLunT3Pr88biVj-ltlasbgFw5YaHHjhil6hKii2uKrDz78abMzVCAmd_Bk28VKQPv4xczc8butGm6Pbxg8PHdoxrutZTlRJdTa-LY3AUQydo/s400/TS_Issac_WV_082612_800PM.png" width="397" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC</td></tr>
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There are good reasons to be fearful for the whole region. Not only is New Orleans likely to be affected to some extent, there are a great deal of Refinery assets at risk, Gasoline prices are already exorbitant. Outages in the limited US Refinery capacity would seriously impact the price of gasoline and other oil based products.<br />
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Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5452314487186977497.post-1184101964275147312012-08-05T12:42:00.002-07:002012-08-05T12:42:24.437-07:00Ernesto not worthy of a nameWhat I would now call an alleged Tropical Storm, Ernesto, was looking good yesterday. The steering flow strengthened late yesterday which both increased his speed and resulted in the center losing its alignement with convection. Further damage to the storm took place when he ran headlong into dry air. Now it takes imagination to see more than a strong tropical wave.<br />
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Ernesto's central pressure has been a bit unconventional for a tropical storm. His lowest pressure has been near 1006 MB, not all that impressive. His winds and cyclonic spin were baroclinically enhanced by high pressure located N and another W of the system. Now that those relationships are weakening, Ernesto has to power himself via tropical means (oceanic heat) if he wants to succeed going forward.<br />
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Here is a Water Vapor image showing Ernesto (South) and an open Tropical Wave affecting FL. So, why would Ernesto not simply be a bigger version of the FL Tropical Wave?<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKTKLUXscp4LtAWTkAHLGkDncFXW2GqUQ7lZQo1snhe_qd1iaDOaas-PWjHYqPgoyvXA8imIY_zQm7Ynt8IJN8_4QRmWGimKPCSmC2FlQooDlPQgn2llBkjsp3qOScj1acu59mRgC7tkg/s1600/Tropics_08042012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="347" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKTKLUXscp4LtAWTkAHLGkDncFXW2GqUQ7lZQo1snhe_qd1iaDOaas-PWjHYqPgoyvXA8imIY_zQm7Ynt8IJN8_4QRmWGimKPCSmC2FlQooDlPQgn2llBkjsp3qOScj1acu59mRgC7tkg/s400/Tropics_08042012.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC</td></tr>
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Being weaker or non-existent "Ernesto" will track most west and will eventually impact southern Mexico and Belize. If anything substantial finds its way into the Bay of Campeche then it may be possible for a storm to be worthy of a name.Captain Climatehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.com0