Preliminary Summer Idea

This summer appears much less difficult to forecast than last year.  The big dilemma last year was resolving how much La Nina would relax before it returned again last winter combined with some cooling forces that had not yet begun to exert themselves.  Therefore I had 2 solutions that were opposites, record heat or cooler than average. As we know the outcome was extremely hot through Aug 15th when summer abruptly ended.

An El Nino is developing in the Equatorial Pacific.  The Southern Oscillation Index and Global Angular Momentum is already responding the warming oceans.  Our sudden end to Summer in March is also part of the weather pattern becoming free of the longstanding La Nina.

As one of many who suffered in last summer's heat, I am pleased to announce that temperatures this summer appear headed to a cool to moderate result.  Negative SOI correlates very well with an eastern summer trough which would give eastern Canada and the Great Lakes potentially no summer.  Here in NC and VA we would benefit from more frequent cold front passages that would moderate our temperatures and provide plenty of rain.  In the map below the green and yellow areas would be expected to be coolest, relative to average.

My final Summer and Tropical Outlook will be issued in May. I do not see anything on the horizon that would change the temperature forecast.  It will be great to have have a summer that being outdoors can be enjoyed and gardens flourish.

Lower Gasoline prices requires wise energy and economic policy

The biggest impact of gasoline prices this time of the year is the poor valuation of the dollar combined with the Iran risk premium on the price of raw crude. As we get into late spring and summer some refinery units have scheduled required maintenance while others switch to summer state-specific formulations which allegedly reduce pollution. As we get into May and June there will be no excess gasoline inventory and prices will likely rise sharply if demand for the product is anywhere near normal.

The effect of increased US supply of crude would be to keep dollars here in the US where they can circulate. It will also lower the Iran/Middle East Risk premium off the base price, increased predictability of gasoline and other distillate inventory will lower the futures prices.

Removal of risk premiums would probably lower prices toward the $3 - $3.15 gallon area (My thinking is a 25% of the price is risk premiums). A shift in monetary policy to shrink the money supply (higher interest rates) and cleanse the dollar of toxins which are also lowering it's spending power would probably send gas prices to $2.50 or even lower. One reason that gasoline averaged $1.78 at the time of Pres Obama's inauguration was the collapse in money supply brought on by the financial crisis in 2008.

President Obama's policies to increase supplier costs (through taxes and regulations) and lower the reliability of supply (restrict drilling, exploration, deny Keystone) definitely plays a strong role in increasing the cost of finished product (gasoline). Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke along with Federal Spending that went from unacceptable(!) (President Bush) to destructive (President Obama) is flooding the US with dollars which are not backed by goods or services. Further distorting the economy is how ordinary people are not in the pipeline for those dollars YET bear the brunt of rising prices of goods and services that has resulted.

Tebow phenomena and the NFL's resistance to change

Denver Bronco QB Tim Tebow has caused a great deal of excitement and controversy.  Some recent examples of "piling on" include criticism of his references to Christianity,  funny videos about Tebowing, and even reports of unsportsmanlike denunciation by a Detroit Lion.   It has been entertaining to read Dallas Defensive Coordinator, Rob Ryan's indignation about Denver's alleged use of a College Offense.

So, what is the big deal about a QB who is obviously a Christian and leads the Broncos to dramatic comeback victories?   What if the root of media and competitor disdain has nothing to do with Tebow's Christianity?  Here is an idea about what has sports media and the NFL culture in an uproar.

• What kind of a QB runs like a RB?  In the linked video Tebow follows a lead block into the End Zone.  Being 236 pounds and built like Atlas, Tebow does not shy away from contact.  Much different than the typical QB who scrambles for a few yards then slides,  
• Denver's offense is a throwback to the 1940's and is based on the Single Wing. Oddly enough, the formation was invented by Glenn Scobey "Pop" Warner and is used today in youth leagues.  College and the "new" Pro version is based on the Zone Read.  If the offense is so basic and old, why is it successful in the NFL?  Defenses should stop it, right?
• Linemen zone block.  It is easier to push forward or block down than other types blocking.  The purpose is to generate options, not run a set play.
• Depending on the evolution of the play there are options to handoff, pitch, or keep the ball.  Another deviation from the set play vs set defense mentality.
• Ordinarily, the QB is not part of a running play once the exchange is made.  This creates a 10 on 11 situation.  When facing Denver, defenses have to contend with Tim Tebow.  Even as a blocker, the 236 pound well-built QB is more than a match for many LB's and DB's.
• Defenses are worn down by the 4th Quarter by Denver's pounding running assault.  Denver's defense benefits from great field position and the extraordinarily few turnovers committed by the offense.

Is the real controversy a fear that NFL Offenses could find new life in old school football?  Could Tebow potentially be paving the way for QB's who run first and pass later?  Is he a harbinger of the end of the current cycle of robotic play calling and pass-happy offenses?   

What do you think?

Winter 2011-12 Forecast now online

Here is my Official Winter 2011-12 Forecast.  My forecast takes advantage of one of the not so well-known weather relationships. My suspicion is that we are in for an eventful winter and big east coast storms. On the flip side: Such a forecast is really risky for me b/c I am setting expectations pretty high for big events this winter.


Let me know if you have any questions.

The Economic Truth of Alternative Energy

Green power is a desirable goal. It would improve the lives of everyone. To benefit everyone, energy (defined as the capacity to do work) must be so inexpensive that it is available to all. Today's policies will not achieve that goal. In fact, the opposite is occuring: Green power is so expensive that only those who have some wealth can afford it with the involuntary transfer of wealth from who have less for the purpose of breaking even.  The problem is that all of the billions of dollars that have been scammed from companies and citizens in taxes, fees, and regulations have NOT advanced the battery and power distribution hardly at all. Meanwhile the POOR are getting their backs broken through fuel poverty and related cost inflation of necessities. The Middle Class is getting squeezed. When will we all accept the fact that all that money is not ACCOMPLISHING hardly anything but making it harder for ordinary people to LIVE? Perhaps, all that money and political power is not being used to improve our situation


Electric Cars would be enormously popular if the average car owner could afford them. Lower maintenance, snappier performance, and less noise and definitely little or no smell.  What is holding back advancement in battery technology that would yield range improvement, charging efficiency, and a value that makes such a vehicle superior over the best internal combustion models available today.  A vehicle which is affordable for nearly everyone would lead to dramatic drop in emissions and improvement in lifestyle for all.


Solar Power is simply not affordable The model of having taxpayers who do not own solar panels subsidize over 50% of the cost of the system over its 25% lifetime for those who do (people who are more rich) is not sustainable. Therefore, the whole economic model is a redistribution of wealth from the poor to those who are more rich.


When diagnosing any problem it is best to start by stepping back and looking at the economic framework. I do not know how to be any more clear that those who are promoting a Global Warming agenda and associated economic policies are expanding the ranks of the poor, squeezing the middle class, and transferring wealth to the upper and political elites. Furthermore, there is little to no technological progress that will pave the way for abundant clean energy for all. This is why I promote cooperation between those who want to honestly pursue the truth while working together to develop solutions that benefit everyone. Right now, there is no econo-political structure that would support such a scenario.

Quick note:

Northern lights have been visible as far south as Central VA.  The best time to see them is near midnight.  Hopefully we can get lucky here in NC.

Fixing the economy means that the status quo must change

Here is the hard truth.  Fixing the economy is not going to be done with a single remedy.  It will take a multi-pronged approach. Everyone will gain and lose something.  The longer we try to preserve the status quo the worse the pain will be when laws of economics inexorably take hold.  Will we be a country who rises to meet this challenge and return to our pioneer roots or are we destined to the economic decay and doldrums of Europe?

Assigning blame is not productive.  My purpose is to describe the way forward.  Here are principles that will accomplish a general economic prosperity.  It would take an innovative self-sacrificing leadership to implement these:

1. Inflation is being used as a tool to stimulate spending by placing consumers in a position which currency loses spending power over time,  Is it better that spending be done with scarce available money or through saving and investing for bigger accomplishment.  Wealth comes from production of goods and services,  Production requires customers who hold wealth worth which is valuable enough to trade.  This means that the only monetary policy is one that guarantees price stability.  Achieving this will require Interest Rates to rise substantially.
2. America was built on Pioneering.  I was inspired when reading how Almanzo and Laura Ingalls Wilder were able to resort to all kinds of odd jobs to stay financially afloat while developing their farm and waiting long years for fruit production. They had the heart of a Pioneer and the FREEDOM to work.  How has our country entangled ourselves in impossible to understand tax laws, employment regulations and paperwork, and other barriers to production?  American citizens need an easy means to produce with minimal Gov't intervention.  Taxation needs to be made so simple that everyone pays the same rate structure and in a quick and easy fashion.  There is plenty of work to be done.  FREE Americans to do it.
3. Patent and litigation reform.  I know the least about this area but enough to realize that insanity is choking innovation,  Products can be patented but ideas cannot.  Patent only working and marketed products or services.  It makes no sense that someone can hoard ideas.  It is absurd that Corporations exist who produce nothing useful,  They accumulate patents and lie in wait to extort huge sums of money from those who often unknowingly violate their collected patents.
4. One of the earliest Science lessons that I remember is simple.  Energy is used to perform work.  Therefore the acquisition and use of energy supplies is a top priority.  I promise that if Energy production was freed from onerous regulation and unjust taxation that ultimately the products and services produced by its use would lead to an explosion of employment and higher tax revenues.  

    Are the above principles unrealistic?  Maybe. Will economic stability be restored?  Yes, but not without sacrifice, hard work, and some political upheaval.  Can our country escape an economic quagmire?  We are definitely capable of succeeding.