Thought about Sandy as she approaches NJ

The long wait for Sandy is over.  As she approaches the coast the "Hurricane" aspect will rapidly transform to a full blown Nor'easter.  Similar to Irene (2011) expect belts of high wind and heavy rain/snow to form far away from center.

At the center of the system, the wind will become a non-event b/c of a lack of pressure gradient.   The big problem (also similar to Irene - 2011) is the central pressure of 943 mb (Strong Category 3) that may yet reach the Category 4 range.  Expect storm surge flooding well above and beyond the bogus Category 1 designation given to the system right now.

One of my lingering concerns is the storms hurricane force+ winds being displaced up to 175 mile s SW of the Center.  Could this imply that those well SW of the Center could see the highest inland winds?

My expectation continues to be that Central VA, north and east of RIC will see top wind gusts in the 60 mph range (original expectation 50-70 mph).     Here in RDU, the National Weather expects gusts to 45 mph.   There is some argument to go a tad higher but... what's 5-10 mph among friends?   On the other hand ... we do not seem to be a very windy area.

Stay safe and stay informed about the weather.  Sandy is a historic storm with a 1000 mile sphere of influence.   I am sure that there are variables that are not being well accounted by weather models.

I am impressed with the overall 72 hour accuracy of model solutions in regards to the track of the center.  It will be interesting to see what happens after the storm completes it Nor' ricane to Nor'Easter cut-off low transformation.

Hurricane Sandy a massive scale is bad news for Eastern US

My long breaks between writing have been unavoidable.  Winter is coming, therefore I know there will be plenty to write about.  Also my job transition is coming more under control.

The subject right now is Hurricane Sandy.  She is already transitioning to a massive nor'easter with a tropical core en route to a probable disastrous impact on the middle and north eastern seaboard and thousands of square miles inland,  The satellite image below  shows the tremendous inflow from across the equator and from the central Pacific.   

Hurricane Sandy well on the way to becoming a Nor-icane (Hybrid Storm)
Image Source: University of Wisconsing SSEC

This storm is not going to live the life of a traditional Hurricane that hits land and fades quickly.  This system will not only make its presence known in the form of gale and hurricane force winds but also coastal flooding and even snow!  

Tomorrow, we will look at the storm track and projected impacts.  Now that Sandy is on the move speculation will transition to greater accuracy in forecasting.   The ECMWF 3 PM run was particularly disconcerting because of a direct hit on the DelMarVA peninsula followed by a track into North Central VA.  Regardless of where she hits, there will be a lot of damage done.  If she took that more SW route then my friends and family along I-95 from RIC on north would get their 3rd hurricane-force impact in less than 10 years!  

Have a good night!  It's going to be a long weekend.

Massive Hurricane Issac strengthens as he closes in on landfall

It is still important not to focus on the wind speed as much as the pressure and the size of the system. Hurricane Issac's central pressure is 970 mb, a strong Category 2.  Storm surge near and east of the landfall will very likely be well above what one would expect off a Cat 1. Take a look at the massive sphere of influence that Issac has in the below water vapor image.  Take notice of the tremendous inflow from the deep tropics and the buildup of heat and moisture at the SE US Coast which is far away from the storm center.

Anytime a storm has this influence, it means business!
Image Source:  Univ of Wisconsin SSEC

Issac still has about 12 hours over water.  I would not be surprised to see Category 2 wind speed at landfall and a Category 3 pressure.  We really need to hope and pray for a landfall point less unfavorable to New Orleans.  No one is interested in seeing the city fill with water again.

If the NHC will not promote Issac to Hurricane, I will!

Even though the NHC calls Issac a 70 mph Tropical Storm. I confer upon the storm the title of Hurricane. Issac's 981 mb central pressure is at the low end of Cat 1 (almost Cat 2) and the Eye is becoming apparent. Therefore based on the 

Saffir-Simpson Scale (The detailed description) Issac easily fits into Cat 1.

Last year's devastating storm Hurricane Irene was a "Category 1" that contained a central pressure of 942 (Category 4!). People stayed in the impact area who would have fled. There was a miraculous preservation of life despite the flooding + amazing local wind damage for a "Category 1" storm.

So, when you examine the stats of the hurricane factor in the Central Pressure when determining likely impacts. Even though the highest measured wind speed may be low it does not mean that the ability to produce small scale wind events of much greater damage potential does not exist. The worse problem near the coast was the record storm surge at Oriental, NC, easily equal to a Cat 4 hurricane.  Another argument against Irene being only a Cat 1 was her wide area of damaging influence.  60-80 mph winds spread up the I-95 corridor, far from center.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_Hurricane_Scale#Category_1

TS Issac appears to be making the LA Coast his target

Those following me on Facebook know the questions and consternation about the destiny of TS Issac.  At first my thought was that the -SOI from Aug 7 - 15 would have successfully introduced a progressive weather pattern thus turned the storm toward the east coast of FL and the SE Coast.  It appears that 2 years  of blocked weather patterns are not easily swept away.

The biggest winner so far in determining the TS Issac track has been WxRisk.com.  David Tolleris correctly chose the Central Gulf as the target zone.  Now that Issac is past the disruption of dry air and Hispaniola + Cuba we will now see the various tools used to determine the track of the system become more accurate.

In the Water Vapor image below I highlighted the frontal system stretching across the middle of the country and the current direction of the moisture plume preceding Issac.  Eventually Issac's circulation will be influenced by the front and be turned right.  The question is whether that influence and the weakness between the Bermuda High and the Inland heat ridge draws the storm sooner or later.

Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC

There are good reasons to be fearful for the whole region. Not only is New Orleans likely to be affected to some extent, there are a great deal of Refinery assets at risk,   Gasoline prices are already exorbitant.  Outages in the limited US Refinery capacity would seriously impact the price of gasoline and other oil based products.

Ernesto not worthy of a name

What I would now call an alleged Tropical Storm, Ernesto, was looking good yesterday.  The steering flow strengthened late yesterday which both increased his speed and resulted in the center losing its alignement with convection.  Further damage to the storm took place when he ran headlong into dry air.  Now it takes imagination to see more than a strong tropical wave.

Ernesto's central pressure has been a bit unconventional for a tropical storm.  His lowest pressure has been near 1006 MB, not all that impressive.  His winds and cyclonic spin were baroclinically enhanced by high pressure located N and another W of the system.  Now that those relationships are weakening, Ernesto has to power himself via tropical means (oceanic heat) if he wants to succeed going forward.

Here is a Water Vapor image showing Ernesto (South) and an open Tropical Wave affecting FL.  So, why would Ernesto not simply be a bigger version of the FL Tropical Wave?

Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC

Being weaker or non-existent "Ernesto" will track most west and will eventually impact southern Mexico and Belize.  If anything substantial finds its way into the Bay of Campeche then it may be possible for a storm to be worthy of a name.

Ernesto slows and strengthens, Nice Day here in NC

Ernesto is surprising me a bit. He slowed to 18 mph (which helps the storm structure stay together) and instead of running headlong into dry air and shear has a nice environment to develop. The other system over the Bahamas yesterday is now moved just east of FL and is running out of space but still has inflow and outflow... so that one may bother FL with heavy rains + strong T-Storms ...BUT... not an organized banded storm.

Here in NC we are benefiting from the simplest of weather principles: High Pressure flows into Low. Therefore a NW flow and drier air is making for a great summer day.  Time to mow the yard so that next weeks rain and t-storms can grow it back again :>(

Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC