Non-tropical development part of the Heat Wave's end

At first I wondered how being a believer in the Caribbean could be so wrong. Today the storm system has blossomed into a non-tropical "Nor'easter".  It probably will pass far offshore of the eastern seaboard but we will reap the benefit of winds that become more northerly and NE.  This means ... cooler air!

Here is a satellite water vapor image of the storm.  Note how the deep positively tilted trough to the west of the storm is ventilating it.  The storm is asymmetric with outflow to the NE and is obviously being powered by non-tropical influences. 

Image Source: University of Wiconsin SSEC

As the trough trailing the storm lifts NE we can expect cooler and wet weather next week.  The rain is definitely welcome as well as an end to the heat wave.

Tropical Disturbance in Caribbean is finally making me a believer

Sorry for the delay in posting. 

I definitely wish that the typhoon cold front that freshened and cooled the air Friday and Saturday would have been a little cooler and lasted longer.  Unfortunately the next West Pacific tropical system will likely point to renewed ridging and heat here in the east,

Of more pressing concern is a disturbance in the Caribbean which is finally making me a believer.  The system referred to as Invest 94L by the Tropical Prediction Center has reached a point in its development that it is likely to form into a storm or hurricane.

The adage "go with the flow" applies very well to tropical systems.  When systems track fight upper level flow their tops get blown off and it weakens or dies.  As seen in the water vapor image below THIS system is lining up with a northward bound jet stream and a s a consequence is organizing itself and setting the stage to become Arlene.

Invest 94L Northward movement is lining up with flow from
the deep tropics.  Image Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC

The Typhoon Rule signals the coming of cooler weather

I am realizing this week that it is better to be hot and uncomfortable than to be under the repeat threats of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Please be in prayer for those suffering in the Midwest and others who are threatened even as I write this article.

Out in the Far East , Typhoon Songda, is providing some hope of a break in the summer heat.  If she follows her predicted path then sometime late Friday or Saturday she will turn east in advance of a trough closing in on Japan.  That would signal the coming of a trough and cooler air to the eastern US either next weekend or early the following week.

Typhoon Songda is forecast to recurve late Friday or Saturday
Image Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC

It would not surprise me at all to see out first tropical storm or hurricane of the Atlantic Season in the 6-10 day time frame.  The strong departing heat ridge if it were a summer pattern would have a risk of a tropical system on its SW quadrant. 

Regardless, a break in the worst sustained heat of the entire summer 2011 is coming.

Summer heat on the way! Tropical Concerns, and Garden tips.

For a while I wondered if the alignment of convection in the tropics called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was going to override the coming of 90 degree+ heat to our region.  It has decided to die out instead of progress through the cool phases!  Therefore here comes summer heat!

The good news is that I expect the worst heat of the whole summer during the next few weeks.  On a bad note:  with the coming of a more moderate to even cool at times regime will come serious hurricane threats to the SE US and eventually even to New England.   Please read a TERRIFIC summary of what to expect this hurricane season by Greg Nordstrom.   Greg is an Instructor or Meteorology at Mississippi State University.

As the heat moves in your gardens will need to be tended in a way that minimizes the stress to your plants.  Here are some guidelines:

• Water lettuce, salad greens, and anything else every day.  Pick those crops ASAP because time is up!  Eat your salads and give away what you cannot use.
• It never helps a plant to flood it with water.  Limit watering to 2-4 cups per tomato, pepper, or other summer plant every other day that it does not rain. Water directly to the base of the plants.  Do not water weeds.
• Zucchini, Squash, Pumpkins, and Cucumbers will wilt some in the afternoon heat.  It is normal.  If the plants fail to recover by 5 PM then give them 2 cups of water to the roots.  Begin to inspect your squash, zucchini, and pumpkins for squash bugs.  Remove the ones that you find and either squash them (phew!!!) or drop them and any eggs you scrape off into soapy water.
• Mulch summer plants with grass clippings, ground leaves, or other organic matter to maintain moisture.  
• If your soil is drying out to quickly then gently mix in some compost but do not disturb the roots.  Compost adds spongy matter called humus which will absorb more water.
• Please avoid spraying tomato vines with water.  It increases the chance of disease

Have no fear that this summer will repeat last years inferno.  It is expected that the heat will come early.  Most of summer will be quite nice!

Cool to Moderate temperatures will contine for next 10-14 days

The weather amazes me because of how it can defy millions of dollars in computing power and an army of professionals and enthusiasts.  There are many tools that can be used to attempt to get an angle of what God's tremendous weather machine is trying to accomplish.

As spring progresses toward it's inevitable conclusion I find the Global Synoptic Dynamic Model (GSDM) to be very useful.  It attempts to integrate atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), MJO activity, and the AAM trend to produce yet another tool called the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO).   Weather is full of acronyms!

I find the GSDM useful as a means to explain where the weather pattern has been an IN GENERAL where it is headed.  It is not useful in forecasting local or regional events but can be used to support or debunk other long range models. Here is the past 40 days of the Global Wind Oscillation:

Notice how the Historic tornado outbreak marked a recent bottom in
global AAM.  The reluctant tight spiral up featured further severe weather
and a repetitive weather pattern that is leading to massive midwest flooding.
Source: NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division

     Where might the general weather pattern be headed here in NC and VA? The GWO is probably already in Phase 5.  Based on trends in the tropics I believe that phases 5, 6, and 8 will best describe the next 10-14 days.  See below how temperatures correlate to these phases.

Therefore we can expect moderate to cool temperatures on average.  I am expecting the Phase 6 trough to bring storms on Thursday and a cool weekend.

Take tropical notice of what happened today

The little tropical  swirl that has been evident since the weekend took some very significant action today.  While the center of the low level closed circulation plodded westward through the southern Bahamas heat, humidity and convection spread thunderstorms and heavy downpours inland through the Carolinas and parts of VA.

Did you notice the summertime temperature, steamy humidity, low billowing clouds, and downpours which some occurred with virtually no radar warning.  Could this be a foreshadowing of tropical storms this summer?   Had the center of the storm been stronger and therefore "stacked" higher then it would have most likely followed the same flow which was aimed right at us.

The small swirling low pressure has separated
from the tropical plume. 
Image Source: Univ of Wisc SSEC

There is a risk of severe thunderstorm activity tomorrow and more likely Thursday as an approaching cold front collides with the existing heat and humidity.  This is nothing like the once in a lifetime caliber outbreak over a week ago but caution should be exercised nonetheless. 

The Travails of an April Tropical Low

April development of a tropical storm system is very rare.  The one attempting to get started in the SW Atlantic has an artistic looking low swirl that has the banded features that one would look for in a storm.  So, even if the winds are great and the water temps are marginal why is the storm failing yet to thrive?

First, let's look at the storm:

Well defined swirl in the SW Atlantic.
Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC

The failure to thrive seems to be caused by dry air in the atmosphere which is starving the storm of being able to produce the convective (like thunderstorms) activity needed to deepen the system and expand it's influence.

Driest air exists where the low level swirl is located.
Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC

As time passes so does the window of opportunity for the system to strengthen before the return of fast westerlies sweeps it away.

Storm Formation in the SW Atlantic

No April Fools!  There is a storm system taking shape in the Southwest Atlantic which could acquire some tropical characteristics during the next few days.  WeatherBell Analytics Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has been anticipating this feature for quite some time.  While the storm is interesting it is not expected to play a role in our weather.

National Hurricane Center gives the forming system only a 10% probability
of reaching Subtropical or Tropical storm strength during the next 2 days.

It is important to take notice of the fact that the storm system is forming before the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Next week a strong Bermuda High and marginal water temperatures will provide some key ingredients to warm the storm center and give it an opportunity to get a name.

Models seem to agree that the system will weaken and turn SW over the next 3-5 days.  None of them seem to be impressed with the storm's prospects for early notoriety.