Sunday, June 5, 2011

Tropical Disturbance in Caribbean is finally making me a believer

Sorry for the delay in posting. 

I definitely wish that the typhoon cold front that freshened and cooled the air Friday and Saturday would have been a little cooler and lasted longer.  Unfortunately the next West Pacific tropical system will likely point to renewed ridging and heat here in the east,

Of more pressing concern is a disturbance in the Caribbean which is finally making me a believer.  The system referred to as Invest 94L by the Tropical Prediction Center has reached a point in its development that it is likely to form into a storm or hurricane.

The adage "go with the flow" applies very well to tropical systems.  When systems track fight upper level flow their tops get blown off and it weakens or dies.  As seen in the water vapor image below THIS system is lining up with a northward bound jet stream and a s a consequence is organizing itself and setting the stage to become Arlene.
Invest 94L Northward movement is lining up with flow from
the deep tropics.  Image Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC

No comments:

Post a Comment