Summer Outlook may be going down in flames

The above image from the University of Wisconsin SSEC shows the connection between the tropics and Pacific Jet Stream.  Larry Cosgrove regularly reports on this connection and how it leads to Winter cold or in this case Summer heat here in the east.

While this connection exists regardless of the other features of the weather pattern described in my summer outlook heat will dominate the east.  The good news is that the westerly winds aloft near the equator (+QBO) have been in the process of being reversed.  Therefore I do not see a repeat of 2010's fiery furnace.  It will take some additional time to retrogress what will become a mid-summer dominant eastern heat ridge into the west.

I still expect the worst of the hurricane activity to menace the eastern seaboard.  Once equatorial winds aloft turn easterly (-QBO) it will favor tropical development.

One more day of heat and thunderstorms then cooler weather comes

Finally we are at the end of what should be the worst sustained heat of the summer.  Thunderstorms are drenching the whole Triangle area and in true capbuster fashion temperatures have dropped into the 70's.

Sunday should top off in the low 90's followed by the round of thunderstorms which usher in cooler, cleaner air.  Next week will be a much needed respite from the heat.  I also expect adequate rainfall in the upcoming pattern to begin reversing the dryness that has dominated since last winter.

The Grubbs family welcomes 7 y.o. Darya Ruban from Belarus on Sunday!

Thank You!!! To those who contributed a total of $1800 out $2200 toward the cost of Darya's travel expenses.

Our family is looking forward to welcoming Darya Ruban, a 7 y.o girl from Cherikov, Belarus!  She arrives on Sunday night and will be staying for 6 weeks as part of the ABRO (American-Belarussian Relief Organization).  While here in NC Darya will be participating in family activities, experiencing North Carolina, and receiving medical care.  The time with us will be a valuable respite from lingering Chernobyl contamination and the consequence of recent serious economic problems in Belarus.

Belarus has experienced rampant inflation due to currency devaluation and some of the same commodity cost pressures which have been affecting everyone throughout the world.  In May there was a surprise 36% devaluation of the Ruble which led to overnight cost increases of that amount or higher. Overall food prices have doubled and some prices are up 300% during the past year.  It is very difficult for families to afford fresh fruit and vegetables.

President Alexander Lukashenko has brought some temporary stability through price controls and other measures while members of his government (who have their jobs on the line) work to solve the monetary problems.

We are very blessed and privileged to be hosting Darya.  Hopefully one day we will be able to visit her family in Belarus.

--
Dean Grubbs
The Dean Report
http://deanreport.blogspot.com

Getting pounded by capbusting thunderstorm

Even though radar estimates that less than a 1/2" has fallen over Garner I can assure you that we are being drenched.  Parts of Durham and NE Wake are under an area flood advisory as 2-4" is estimated to have fallen there, 

Surface heat and moisture has broken through the cap of dry air above the surface.  These "capbusters" are typically slow moving and can become severe.  Radar indicates any storm taking aim at Garner and the NE Wake system is fading.  The question is whether the second southern Wake system will hold together long enough to drench us again and shake the house with rounds of booming thunder.

--
Dean Grubbs
The Dean Report
http://deanreport.blogspot.com

Non-tropical development part of the Heat Wave's end

At first I wondered how being a believer in the Caribbean could be so wrong. Today the storm system has blossomed into a non-tropical "Nor'easter".  It probably will pass far offshore of the eastern seaboard but we will reap the benefit of winds that become more northerly and NE.  This means ... cooler air!

Here is a satellite water vapor image of the storm.  Note how the deep positively tilted trough to the west of the storm is ventilating it.  The storm is asymmetric with outflow to the NE and is obviously being powered by non-tropical influences. 

Image Source: University of Wiconsin SSEC

As the trough trailing the storm lifts NE we can expect cooler and wet weather next week.  The rain is definitely welcome as well as an end to the heat wave.

Tropical Disturbance in Caribbean is finally making me a believer

Sorry for the delay in posting. 

I definitely wish that the typhoon cold front that freshened and cooled the air Friday and Saturday would have been a little cooler and lasted longer.  Unfortunately the next West Pacific tropical system will likely point to renewed ridging and heat here in the east,

Of more pressing concern is a disturbance in the Caribbean which is finally making me a believer.  The system referred to as Invest 94L by the Tropical Prediction Center has reached a point in its development that it is likely to form into a storm or hurricane.

The adage "go with the flow" applies very well to tropical systems.  When systems track fight upper level flow their tops get blown off and it weakens or dies.  As seen in the water vapor image below THIS system is lining up with a northward bound jet stream and a s a consequence is organizing itself and setting the stage to become Arlene.

Invest 94L Northward movement is lining up with flow from
the deep tropics.  Image Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC

The Typhoon Rule signals the coming of cooler weather

I am realizing this week that it is better to be hot and uncomfortable than to be under the repeat threats of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Please be in prayer for those suffering in the Midwest and others who are threatened even as I write this article.

Out in the Far East , Typhoon Songda, is providing some hope of a break in the summer heat.  If she follows her predicted path then sometime late Friday or Saturday she will turn east in advance of a trough closing in on Japan.  That would signal the coming of a trough and cooler air to the eastern US either next weekend or early the following week.

Typhoon Songda is forecast to recurve late Friday or Saturday
Image Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC

It would not surprise me at all to see out first tropical storm or hurricane of the Atlantic Season in the 6-10 day time frame.  The strong departing heat ridge if it were a summer pattern would have a risk of a tropical system on its SW quadrant. 

Regardless, a break in the worst sustained heat of the entire summer 2011 is coming.