TS Beryl hitting land. Looks like a Hurricane.

The below Radar image courtesy of the National Weather Service looks more like a hurricane than a typical tropical storm.  It will not surprise me if the system is either upgraded or re-classified at a later date 

TS Beryl Update - Near Hurricane Strength

It appears that the improvement in overall structure paid off for Beryl as her top winds are estimated at 70 mph.  The potential for a damaging hit is greatly increased.  If Beryl were to reach hurricane strength she would be only the second hurricane to directly hit Jacksonville since 1871.

Storms like Beryl are interesting to me because even though the storm has tropical structure it is also being fueled by baroclinic features.  In the below water vapor image, I outlined a subtropical jet stream that is feeding the storm from the SW and strong northerly flow that is contributing to the "spin" on the west side of the system.

TS Beryl is a hybrid that is powered by oceanic heat and
baroclinic processes.  She is close to hurricane strength.
Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC.

In my experience, storms like Beryl can either have wide ranging impact and maintain strength for a long time or quickly break down as soon as the baroclinic assistance falters.  A baroclinic-tropical system is also called a hybrid storm.   Last summer's destructive Hurricane Irene was an incredible example of a hybrid system.   Despite alleged top winds of 85 mph (Damage near Oriental, NC suggests otherwise), the storm had a central pressure of 952 mb (Cat 4 would be under 950), and a massive storm surge that flooded areas that would have only expected high water in major hurricanes.  The storm also sent 70 mph winds and heavy damage along a belt far from center along I-95 through VA into MD.  Irene caused billions in flood and wind damage as she treked north through the NE US and well into Canada.

The question is: Will Beryl be The Lady or the Tiger?.

TS Beryl taking aim at Jacksonville, FL

It is not uncommon during summers that are transitioning to El NIno or in one to see early season tropical storms. In seasons like the upcoming summer upper level westerly winds in the tropics will either shear off the tops of storms before they can form or turn them away from land.  Therefore what storms do manage to form and threaten land are born much farther north and closer to land.  The good news is that the vast majority of such systems do not tend to be large or powerful.


TS Beryl has improved in size and structure.  Even though her wind speeds are not a cause for great concern, it is likely that when she goes inland a deluge of rain could lead to flooding and gusty winds down some trees and cause damage typical after hours of 30-40 mph winds.  Generally storms which are weak but large in scope tend to hold together for longer periods of time overland.  I am impressed with Beryl's structure.  Note the possible eye-like feature in the visible satellite.

TS Beryl appears to be developing an eye feature.
Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC

Even though the storm will ruin Memorial Day for many in FL and GA there is a blessing that can come from the rain that is expected in an area that has become very dry.   Heat ridges, such as the feature that roasted the whole region the past two summers do not tend to hold together over moist land.  The reason is that water vapor is lighter than dry air, therefore sabotaging high pressure development.

June still appears to be the month of summer that will contain the hottest temperatures and much of the remaining tropical storm activity.  Once past June we still appear on track for a moderate summer.

Summer and Tropical Outlook 2012

Sorry for the prolonged silence. I have been involved in a job transition that has consumed my energy and attention.  Here is my Outlook for this Summer.  It will be shorter and more concise than in the past so please ask questions if more details are needed.

La Nina's effects not going quietly into the night


The ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) is an Oscillation which has been stuck in a La Nina phase for the past 2 years.   One could argue that some of the foundations of the prolonged La Nina were already in place during the 2009-10 El Nino.  There was the interesting characteristic of a non-El Nino-like excessive rainfall and flooding in northern Australia during that period.

La Nina generates a situation that leads to amplified, blocked weather patterns by the effect on global atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) by the cooling of the waters of the equatorial Pacific.  In general this means that ridges of high pressure dominate east of mountain ranges and land masses and troughs to the west,  The excessive heat of last summer and our recent non-winter were extreme examples of what La Nina can do.

Finally the pendulum is shifting in the El Nino direction but it appears that late Spring and early Summer will contain some lingering blocked weather patterns and hurricane potential.  Therefore, the hottest days of summer appear to be slated for June.  This chart shows the hole that AAM must climb out.  The trend will be our friend as weather patterns evolve into El Nino solutions but it will take some time for the uptrend toward cooler/milder summer weather can take over.

The AAM line is back in La Nina territory
In general there is an uptrend from March lows.

Summer Temperatures

June: The hottest month featuring the warmest days and I completely expect a streak or two of 95+ degree highs.
July:  I would not be surprised if the warmth of June ends in an East Coast or NE Gulf Tropical Storm. Cooler than average to moderate.
August: Near average temperatures with some back and forth as late summer processes attempt and ultimately fail to sustain a prolonged Bermuda High.

If not for some above average Atlantic Ocean temperatures in key regions (+AMO) it would be easy to see summer here in Central NC and VA to be below average.  The Ocean surface temperature variation is also a known Oscillation that is heading toward a negative dominant phase but not there yet.

Tropical Activity

Summers heading into an El Nino tend to not include high numbers/intensity of tropical storms.  Westerly upper level winds in the tropics inhibit storm development.  Overall activity should be below long term averages.

Storm tracks tend to recurve out to sea more quickly than La Nina seasons.  They also form north of the deep tropical regions and closer to land.  We call this "Homebrew" development.  Those storms are often weaker than the Cape Verde type hurricanes but there is far less warning before landfall.

Lingering low AAM is likely to enhance opportunities for early hurricane activity, even the long-tracked Cape Verde type.  Do not be surprised if June features the season's strongest storm.  I am deeply concerned about the NC Coasts, particularly those struggling to recover from 2011 Hurricane Irene.

Precipitation

As AAM rises weather systems will become increasingly progressive.   This means more frontal passages which will increase opportunities for rainfall compared to recent summers.  Watch in June for a crazy hot period that is followed be a tropical storm/hurricane or a prolonged period of heavy tropical sourced rainfall.

Overall, I expect the summer to feature normal to above average precipitation.

Looking Ahead

East Coasr Weather Warriors are salivating at the thought of a weak El Nino during Winter.  It means cold with excessive amounts of snow particularly in areas that are were buried in 2009-10.  If any major  high latitude volcanic eruptions occur in the coming months then the stage would be set for  an expensively cold season.                                                                  

Preliminary Summer Idea

This summer appears much less difficult to forecast than last year.  The big dilemma last year was resolving how much La Nina would relax before it returned again last winter combined with some cooling forces that had not yet begun to exert themselves.  Therefore I had 2 solutions that were opposites, record heat or cooler than average. As we know the outcome was extremely hot through Aug 15th when summer abruptly ended.

An El Nino is developing in the Equatorial Pacific.  The Southern Oscillation Index and Global Angular Momentum is already responding the warming oceans.  Our sudden end to Summer in March is also part of the weather pattern becoming free of the longstanding La Nina.

As one of many who suffered in last summer's heat, I am pleased to announce that temperatures this summer appear headed to a cool to moderate result.  Negative SOI correlates very well with an eastern summer trough which would give eastern Canada and the Great Lakes potentially no summer.  Here in NC and VA we would benefit from more frequent cold front passages that would moderate our temperatures and provide plenty of rain.  In the map below the green and yellow areas would be expected to be coolest, relative to average.

My final Summer and Tropical Outlook will be issued in May. I do not see anything on the horizon that would change the temperature forecast.  It will be great to have have a summer that being outdoors can be enjoyed and gardens flourish.

Lower Gasoline prices requires wise energy and economic policy

The biggest impact of gasoline prices this time of the year is the poor valuation of the dollar combined with the Iran risk premium on the price of raw crude. As we get into late spring and summer some refinery units have scheduled required maintenance while others switch to summer state-specific formulations which allegedly reduce pollution. As we get into May and June there will be no excess gasoline inventory and prices will likely rise sharply if demand for the product is anywhere near normal.

The effect of increased US supply of crude would be to keep dollars here in the US where they can circulate. It will also lower the Iran/Middle East Risk premium off the base price, increased predictability of gasoline and other distillate inventory will lower the futures prices.

Removal of risk premiums would probably lower prices toward the $3 - $3.15 gallon area (My thinking is a 25% of the price is risk premiums). A shift in monetary policy to shrink the money supply (higher interest rates) and cleanse the dollar of toxins which are also lowering it's spending power would probably send gas prices to $2.50 or even lower. One reason that gasoline averaged $1.78 at the time of Pres Obama's inauguration was the collapse in money supply brought on by the financial crisis in 2008.

President Obama's policies to increase supplier costs (through taxes and regulations) and lower the reliability of supply (restrict drilling, exploration, deny Keystone) definitely plays a strong role in increasing the cost of finished product (gasoline). Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke along with Federal Spending that went from unacceptable(!) (President Bush) to destructive (President Obama) is flooding the US with dollars which are not backed by goods or services. Further distorting the economy is how ordinary people are not in the pipeline for those dollars YET bear the brunt of rising prices of goods and services that has resulted.

Tebow phenomena and the NFL's resistance to change

Denver Bronco QB Tim Tebow has caused a great deal of excitement and controversy.  Some recent examples of "piling on" include criticism of his references to Christianity,  funny videos about Tebowing, and even reports of unsportsmanlike denunciation by a Detroit Lion.   It has been entertaining to read Dallas Defensive Coordinator, Rob Ryan's indignation about Denver's alleged use of a College Offense.

So, what is the big deal about a QB who is obviously a Christian and leads the Broncos to dramatic comeback victories?   What if the root of media and competitor disdain has nothing to do with Tebow's Christianity?  Here is an idea about what has sports media and the NFL culture in an uproar.

• What kind of a QB runs like a RB?  In the linked video Tebow follows a lead block into the End Zone.  Being 236 pounds and built like Atlas, Tebow does not shy away from contact.  Much different than the typical QB who scrambles for a few yards then slides,  
• Denver's offense is a throwback to the 1940's and is based on the Single Wing. Oddly enough, the formation was invented by Glenn Scobey "Pop" Warner and is used today in youth leagues.  College and the "new" Pro version is based on the Zone Read.  If the offense is so basic and old, why is it successful in the NFL?  Defenses should stop it, right?
• Linemen zone block.  It is easier to push forward or block down than other types blocking.  The purpose is to generate options, not run a set play.
• Depending on the evolution of the play there are options to handoff, pitch, or keep the ball.  Another deviation from the set play vs set defense mentality.
• Ordinarily, the QB is not part of a running play once the exchange is made.  This creates a 10 on 11 situation.  When facing Denver, defenses have to contend with Tim Tebow.  Even as a blocker, the 236 pound well-built QB is more than a match for many LB's and DB's.
• Defenses are worn down by the 4th Quarter by Denver's pounding running assault.  Denver's defense benefits from great field position and the extraordinarily few turnovers committed by the offense.

Is the real controversy a fear that NFL Offenses could find new life in old school football?  Could Tebow potentially be paving the way for QB's who run first and pass later?  Is he a harbinger of the end of the current cycle of robotic play calling and pass-happy offenses?   

What do you think?