Thursday, December 1, 2011

Tebow phenomena and the NFL's resistance to change

Denver Bronco QB Tim Tebow has caused a great deal of excitement and controversy.  Some recent examples of "piling on" include criticism of his references to Christianity,  funny videos about Tebowing, and even reports of unsportsmanlike denunciation by a Detroit Lion.   It has been entertaining to read Dallas Defensive Coordinator, Rob Ryan's indignation about Denver's alleged use of a College Offense.

So, what is the big deal about a QB who is obviously a Christian and leads the Broncos to dramatic comeback victories?   What if the root of media and competitor disdain has nothing to do with Tebow's Christianity?  Here is an idea about what has sports media and the NFL culture in an uproar.

  • What kind of a QB runs like a RB?  In the linked video Tebow follows a lead block into the End Zone.  Being 236 pounds and built like Atlas, Tebow does not shy away from contact.  Much different than the typical QB who scrambles for a few yards then slides,  
  • Denver's offense is a throwback to the 1940's and is based on the Single Wing. Oddly enough, the formation was invented by Glenn Scobey "Pop" Warner and is used today in youth leagues.  College and the "new" Pro version is based on the Zone Read.  If the offense is so basic and old, why is it successful in the NFL?  Defenses should stop it, right?
    • Linemen zone block.  It is easier to push forward or block down than other types blocking.  The purpose is to generate options, not run a set play.
    • Depending on the evolution of the play there are options to handoff, pitch, or keep the ball.  Another deviation from the set play vs set defense mentality.
    • Ordinarily, the QB is not part of a running play once the exchange is made.  This creates a 10 on 11 situation.  When facing Denver, defenses have to contend with Tim Tebow.  Even as a blocker, the 236 pound well-built QB is more than a match for many LB's and DB's.
  • Defenses are worn down by the 4th Quarter by Denver's pounding running assault.  Denver's defense benefits from great field position and the extraordinarily few turnovers committed by the offense.
Is the real controversy a fear that NFL Offenses could find new life in old school football?  Could Tebow potentially be paving the way for QB's who run first and pass later?  Is he a harbinger of the end of the current cycle of robotic play calling and pass-happy offenses?   

What do you think?

Friday, November 25, 2011

Winter 2011-12 Forecast now online

Here is my Official Winter 2011-12 Forecast.  My forecast takes advantage of one of the not so well-known weather relationships. My suspicion is that we are in for an eventful winter and big east coast storms. On the flip side: Such a forecast is really risky for me b/c I am setting expectations pretty high for big events this winter.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

The Economic Truth of Alternative Energy

Green power is a desirable goal. It would improve the lives of everyone. To benefit everyone, energy (defined as the capacity to do work) must be so inexpensive that it is available to all. Today's policies will not achieve that goal. In fact, the opposite is occuring: Green power is so expensive that only those who have some wealth can afford it with the involuntary transfer of wealth from who have less for the purpose of breaking even.  The problem is that all of the billions of dollars that have been scammed from companies and citizens in taxes, fees, and regulations have NOT advanced the battery and power distribution hardly at all. Meanwhile the POOR are getting their backs broken through fuel poverty and related cost inflation of necessities. The Middle Class is getting squeezed. When will we all accept the fact that all that money is not ACCOMPLISHING hardly anything but making it harder for ordinary people to LIVE? Perhaps, all that money and political power is not being used to improve our situation

Electric Cars would be enormously popular if the average car owner could afford them. Lower maintenance, snappier performance, and less noise and definitely little or no smell.  What is holding back advancement in battery technology that would yield range improvement, charging efficiency, and a value that makes such a vehicle superior over the best internal combustion models available today.  A vehicle which is affordable for nearly everyone would lead to dramatic drop in emissions and improvement in lifestyle for all.

Solar Power is simply not affordable The model of having taxpayers who do not own solar panels subsidize over 50% of the cost of the system over its 25% lifetime for those who do (people who are more rich) is not sustainable. Therefore, the whole economic model is a redistribution of wealth from the poor to those who are more rich.

When diagnosing any problem it is best to start by stepping back and looking at the economic framework. I do not know how to be any more clear that those who are promoting a Global Warming agenda and associated economic policies are expanding the ranks of the poor, squeezing the middle class, and transferring wealth to the upper and political elites. Furthermore, there is little to no technological progress that will pave the way for abundant clean energy for all. This is why I promote cooperation between those who want to honestly pursue the truth while working together to develop solutions that benefit everyone. Right now, there is no econo-political structure that would support such a scenario.

Monday, October 24, 2011

Quick note:

Northern lights have been visible as far south as Central VA.  The best time to see them is near midnight.  Hopefully we can get lucky here in NC.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Fixing the economy means that the status quo must change

Here is the hard truth.  Fixing the economy is not going to be done with a single remedy.  It will take a multi-pronged approach. Everyone will gain and lose something.  The longer we try to preserve the status quo the worse the pain will be when laws of economics inexorably take hold.  Will we be a country who rises to meet this challenge and return to our pioneer roots or are we destined to the economic decay and doldrums of Europe?

Assigning blame is not productive.  My purpose is to describe the way forward.  Here are principles that will accomplish a general economic prosperity.  It would take an innovative self-sacrificing leadership to implement these:
  1. Inflation is being used as a tool to stimulate spending by placing consumers in a position which currency loses spending power over time,  Is it better that spending be done with scarce available money or through saving and investing for bigger accomplishment.  Wealth comes from production of goods and services,  Production requires customers who hold wealth worth which is valuable enough to trade.  This means that the only monetary policy is one that guarantees price stability.  Achieving this will require Interest Rates to rise substantially.
  2. America was built on Pioneering.  I was inspired when reading how Almanzo and Laura Ingalls Wilder were able to resort to all kinds of odd jobs to stay financially afloat while developing their farm and waiting long years for fruit production. They had the heart of a Pioneer and the FREEDOM to work.  How has our country entangled ourselves in impossible to understand tax laws, employment regulations and paperwork, and other barriers to production?  American citizens need an easy means to produce with minimal Gov't intervention.  Taxation needs to be made so simple that everyone pays the same rate structure and in a quick and easy fashion.  There is plenty of work to be done.  FREE Americans to do it.
  3. Patent and litigation reform.  I know the least about this area but enough to realize that insanity is choking innovation,  Products can be patented but ideas cannot.  Patent only working and marketed products or services.  It makes no sense that someone can hoard ideas.  It is absurd that Corporations exist who produce nothing useful,  They accumulate patents and lie in wait to extort huge sums of money from those who often unknowingly violate their collected patents.
  4. One of the earliest Science lessons that I remember is simple.  Energy is used to perform work.  Therefore the acquisition and use of energy supplies is a top priority.  I promise that if Energy production was freed from onerous regulation and unjust taxation that ultimately the products and services produced by its use would lead to an explosion of employment and higher tax revenues.  
    Are the above principles unrealistic?  Maybe. Will economic stability be restored?  Yes, but not without sacrifice, hard work, and some political upheaval.  Can our country escape an economic quagmire?  We are definitely capable of succeeding.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Irene probable risk to the North and South Carolina is serious

Tropical Storm Irene has a crucial 3-5 days.  The result of her encounters with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will ultimately be decisive in where the storm makes landfall along the Eastern Seaboard and how much damage is done.

Follow my Examiner page for daily updates until the threat is past.

Source: NOAA Tropical Prediction Center

Dean Grubbs
The Dean Report

Monday, August 15, 2011

More Dean Report Coming Soon!

I am making some changes to the mission of this blog.  My return to does that mean that I am abandoning my flagship column.  More details soon.

Monday, June 27, 2011

Possibility of storm development in the Bay of Campeche

The Tropical Prediction Center is investigating an area of unsettled weather in the Bay of Campeche.  Should this area become a named storm the leading idea is that it would be captured by the clockwise flow around the Texas High Pressure and steered into Mexico.

Source: University of Wisconsin SSEC
Dean Grubbs
The Dean Report

Friday, June 24, 2011

More heat is on the way but relief is coming for July 4th holiday

Heat will come back for an encore

The good news is that we are avoiding the inferno of summer 2010.  Unfortunately as Atmospheric Angular Momentum drops into La Nina territory ridging in the eastern US is favored until late summer processes in August bring different results.  For much of the summer AAM has been in neutral territory thus other forces like the Texas/deep south drought and westerly flow have combined to transport hot dry conditions into NC and VA.  Below is the current Relative AAM chart from the NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory.

How do I spell RELIEF?  West Pacific Storm moving E on N

Late Sunday, Tropical Storm Mean is expected to turn NE.  This signal known as the "Typhoon Rule" signals the coming of a trough to the east 6-10 days after the turn.  The great news is that the timing may cover some or all of the July 4th holiday. 

Source: University of Wisconsin SSEC

One last concern is whether a tropical system will form from the remnants of a frontal system in the Gulf of Mexico and move NE just on time to douse the southern US holiday weekend.  Old fronts are typical sources of June tropical development.

Source: University of Wisconsin SSEC

So, shall we say that how the weather plays out next weekend is "up in the air"?