Friday, June 24, 2011

More heat is on the way but relief is coming for July 4th holiday

Heat will come back for an encore

The good news is that we are avoiding the inferno of summer 2010.  Unfortunately as Atmospheric Angular Momentum drops into La Nina territory ridging in the eastern US is favored until late summer processes in August bring different results.  For much of the summer AAM has been in neutral territory thus other forces like the Texas/deep south drought and westerly flow have combined to transport hot dry conditions into NC and VA.  Below is the current Relative AAM chart from the NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory.

How do I spell RELIEF?  West Pacific Storm moving E on N

Late Sunday, Tropical Storm Mean is expected to turn NE.  This signal known as the "Typhoon Rule" signals the coming of a trough to the east 6-10 days after the turn.  The great news is that the timing may cover some or all of the July 4th holiday. 

Source: University of Wisconsin SSEC

One last concern is whether a tropical system will form from the remnants of a frontal system in the Gulf of Mexico and move NE just on time to douse the southern US holiday weekend.  Old fronts are typical sources of June tropical development.