Monday, May 9, 2011

Cool to Moderate temperatures will contine for next 10-14 days

The weather amazes me because of how it can defy millions of dollars in computing power and an army of professionals and enthusiasts.  There are many tools that can be used to attempt to get an angle of what God's tremendous weather machine is trying to accomplish.

As spring progresses toward it's inevitable conclusion I find the Global Synoptic Dynamic Model (GSDM) to be very useful.  It attempts to integrate atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), MJO activity, and the AAM trend to produce yet another tool called the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO).   Weather is full of acronyms!

I find the GSDM useful as a means to explain where the weather pattern has been an IN GENERAL where it is headed.  It is not useful in forecasting local or regional events but can be used to support or debunk other long range models. Here is the past 40 days of the Global Wind Oscillation:
Notice how the Historic tornado outbreak marked a recent bottom in
global AAM.  The reluctant tight spiral up featured further severe weather
and a repetitive weather pattern that is leading to massive midwest flooding.
Source: NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division
     Where might the general weather pattern be headed here in NC and VA? The GWO is probably already in Phase 5.  Based on trends in the tropics I believe that phases 5, 6, and 8 will best describe the next 10-14 days.  See below how temperatures correlate to these phases.
Therefore we can expect moderate to cool temperatures on average.  I am expecting the Phase 6 trough to bring storms on Thursday and a cool weekend.

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