Friday, April 6, 2012

Preliminary Summer Idea

This summer appears much less difficult to forecast than last year.  The big dilemma last year was resolving how much La Nina would relax before it returned again last winter combined with some cooling forces that had not yet begun to exert themselves.  Therefore I had 2 solutions that were opposites, record heat or cooler than average. As we know the outcome was extremely hot through Aug 15th when summer abruptly ended.

An El Nino is developing in the Equatorial Pacific.  The Southern Oscillation Index and Global Angular Momentum is already responding the warming oceans.  Our sudden end to Summer in March is also part of the weather pattern becoming free of the longstanding La Nina.

As one of many who suffered in last summer's heat, I am pleased to announce that temperatures this summer appear headed to a cool to moderate result.  Negative SOI correlates very well with an eastern summer trough which would give eastern Canada and the Great Lakes potentially no summer.  Here in NC and VA we would benefit from more frequent cold front passages that would moderate our temperatures and provide plenty of rain.  In the map below the green and yellow areas would be expected to be coolest, relative to average.

My final Summer and Tropical Outlook will be issued in May. I do not see anything on the horizon that would change the temperature forecast.  It will be great to have have a summer that being outdoors can be enjoyed and gardens flourish.

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