Monday, October 29, 2012

Thought about Sandy as she approaches NJ

The long wait for Sandy is over.  As she approaches the coast the "Hurricane" aspect will rapidly transform to a full blown Nor'easter.  Similar to Irene (2011) expect belts of high wind and heavy rain/snow to form far away from center.

At the center of the system, the wind will become a non-event b/c of a lack of pressure gradient.   The big problem (also similar to Irene - 2011) is the central pressure of 943 mb (Strong Category 3) that may yet reach the Category 4 range.  Expect storm surge flooding well above and beyond the bogus Category 1 designation given to the system right now.

One of my lingering concerns is the storms hurricane force+ winds being displaced up to 175 mile s SW of the Center.  Could this imply that those well SW of the Center could see the highest inland winds?

My expectation continues to be that Central VA, north and east of RIC will see top wind gusts in the 60 mph range (original expectation 50-70 mph).     Here in RDU, the National Weather expects gusts to 45 mph.   There is some argument to go a tad higher but... what's 5-10 mph among friends?   On the other hand ... we do not seem to be a very windy area.

Stay safe and stay informed about the weather.  Sandy is a historic storm with a 1000 mile sphere of influence.   I am sure that there are variables that are not being well accounted by weather models.

I am impressed with the overall 72 hour accuracy of model solutions in regards to the track of the center.  It will be interesting to see what happens after the storm completes it Nor' ricane to Nor'Easter cut-off low transformation.

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