Monday, October 11, 2010

Atmospheric "Bull Market" signals more extreme weather

Important Reference: Putting a Spin on the Earth's Weather

El Nino's grand collapse this past spring into a dominant La Nina pattern was very similar to a Stock Market Crash in terms of the mayhem caused worldwide.  Weather patterns literally locked in place causing some of us to roast, others, to shiver, and areas like Pakistan to drown in rainfall.  An extremely interesting aspect of this La Nina was the global lack of hurricane production.  Even though the Atlantic was well above average the total cyclone production as calculated in terms of Accumulated Cyclonic Energy (ACE) is at a 33 year low.

Global AAM just got a boost as mountain ranges are literally moving weather systems along in the deep tropics.  Far to the north blocking high pressure formation is being promoted.  This development is very important for 2 reasons:
  • A destruction of the repetitive heat ridge which caused suffering in the US Southeast. Summer will soon be OVER.
  • Easterly flow to the north combined with westerlies to the south encourage storm formation.  We need to be on the lookout for a Nor'easter or tropical hybrid which brings wind and rain to the east.  Another big reason to watch for a big storm is the coming of the NC State Fair!
This pattern looks like last winter.
Source: NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory.

 Compare the above image with the one below which I saved from this past winter.  Keep in mind that the Winter's biggest story was the -AO mega blocking pattern which sustained cold more-so than the El Nino.
Winter 2009-10 featured fully developed versions of
blocking in the North and a subtropical jet to the south.
Source: NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory.

     The GFS Model does forecast a blustery frontal passage for Thursday,  Just in time for the start of the NC State Fair.

That's not "Fair"!!!
Source: NOAA Air Resourced Laboratory

     The last GFS Model Output needs to be interpreted in terms of overall theme.  Models at the Day 10 level can be notoriously wrong   The scene depicts a heavy rainstorm ahead of an incoming strong cold front that washes the NC State Fair away.  I think something like this is coming BUT will need to tweak the timing as actual weather systems appear on the map.
More of "That's not Fair"?
Source: NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

         Could this kind of a weather pattern repeat during the upcoming winter?  I am finding that Autumn events seem not to correlate very well with the following season.  The picture that God is painting through the transition of Fall does shine some light in terms of the overall theme of the events and measurable impact on the global circulation.

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