|The Arctic Oscillation dives to deep negative in response to stratospheric warming|
Source: NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory
Both ensembles forecast a +EPO beginning near Jan 17 which would lead to a warm southeast ridge about 3 days later. NCEP is more aggressive with next week's cold and following warmth BUT leaves a -WPO. ESRL is not as aggressive with either projection and does not promise a powerful warm-up either.
|Source: NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory|