Sunday, May 27, 2012

TS Beryl taking aim at Jacksonville, FL

It is not uncommon during summers that are transitioning to El NIno or in one to see early season tropical storms. In seasons like the upcoming summer upper level westerly winds in the tropics will either shear off the tops of storms before they can form or turn them away from land.  Therefore what storms do manage to form and threaten land are born much farther north and closer to land.  The good news is that the vast majority of such systems do not tend to be large or powerful.

TS Beryl has improved in size and structure.  Even though her wind speeds are not a cause for great concern, it is likely that when she goes inland a deluge of rain could lead to flooding and gusty winds down some trees and cause damage typical after hours of 30-40 mph winds.  Generally storms which are weak but large in scope tend to hold together for longer periods of time overland.  I am impressed with Beryl's structure.  Note the possible eye-like feature in the visible satellite.

TS Beryl appears to be developing an eye feature.
Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC
Even though the storm will ruin Memorial Day for many in FL and GA there is a blessing that can come from the rain that is expected in an area that has become very dry.   Heat ridges, such as the feature that roasted the whole region the past two summers do not tend to hold together over moist land.  The reason is that water vapor is lighter than dry air, therefore sabotaging high pressure development.

June still appears to be the month of summer that will contain the hottest temperatures and much of the remaining tropical storm activity.  Once past June we still appear on track for a moderate summer.

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