Sunday, November 7, 2010

Weather Roller-Coaster! Preview of Winter?

     This morning I awoke to a ground frozen solid, frozen Kale (OK!), Greens (OK above 27), but damaged Basil, and dead tomato vines.  Bell and Cayenne Peppers were protected under a sheet and the Serrano bush appears untouched.  We gardeners dread the coming of frosts and freezes that end the summer fun.  Even the survivors of winter's first strike will go down in 7-10 days.

    Far out in the Pacfic a signal has already been sent that a jolt to the weather pattern is coming between Nov 11-13.  In a La Nina the base pattern is a trough (cool) in the West and ridge (warm) in the Southeast.  A surge of atmospheric momentum at times will shove the cold and/or storm weather east.  I measure this by adding 15 days to Southern Oscillation Index values which were measured in Australia and Tahiti.   The dip signifies a surge in momentum where it can have the greatest effect, in the deep tropics.
Dip in SOI signals coming jolt to this week's warm pattern
Data Source: The Long Paddock
     The 30 day moving average is trending downward which may be a sign of La Nina beginning her weakening process.  If I am right and this winter features a weakening La Nina then many jolts to what others may forecast as a mild, dry, boring winter are coming.

    Something to watch for in Central NC and VA is a round of snow or ice later this month.   IF my research is correct, interesting winters like upcoming 2010-11 start with a late Fall surprise snow or ice.
     Larry Cosgrove's WeatherAmerica Newsletter features a litany of differences between the current La Nina pattern and what would typically be expected.  Pay careful attention to the final paragraph.

    My final winter forecast is usually out by Thanksgiving.  This may change by then but my expectation is that the upcoming season will feature plenty of ups and downs in terms of temperature and Winter Storms.

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