Far out in the Pacfic a signal has already been sent that a jolt to the weather pattern is coming between Nov 11-13. In a La Nina the base pattern is a trough (cool) in the West and ridge (warm) in the Southeast. A surge of atmospheric momentum at times will shove the cold and/or storm weather east. I measure this by adding 15 days to Southern Oscillation Index values which were measured in Australia and Tahiti. The dip signifies a surge in momentum where it can have the greatest effect, in the deep tropics.
|Dip in SOI signals coming jolt to this week's warm pattern|
Data Source: The Long Paddock
Something to watch for in Central NC and VA is a round of snow or ice later this month. IF my research is correct, interesting winters like upcoming 2010-11 start with a late Fall surprise snow or ice.
Larry Cosgrove's WeatherAmerica Newsletter features a litany of differences between the current La Nina pattern and what would typically be expected. Pay careful attention to the final paragraph.
My final winter forecast is usually out by Thanksgiving. This may change by then but my expectation is that the upcoming season will feature plenty of ups and downs in terms of temperature and Winter Storms.