Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Working on Winter Forecast

Sorry for the lack of posting the past several days.  This upcoming winter is very perplexing.  Understanding some important differences between a stereotypical La Nina and current conditions is easy.  Determining how the winter season here in NC and VA will be impacted is what is difficult.

Not quite a typical La Nina:
  • There is a split jet stream in the Pacific more typical of El Nino.
  • Rainfall in Australia definitely is not living up to La Nina.
  • Global Hurricane Production is in the dumps.  
  • The most active region, the Atlantic featured tracks that were recurvatures (north and east).
  • Ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and Global Angular Momentum seem to have hit bottom in Sept/Oct instead of Dec/Jan.
Low solar activity continues and Siberian and other high latitude volcanoes have been fairly busy but not as much as 2008-09.

Therefore, anyone who forecasts a stereotypical La Nina is taking a big risk.

No comments:

Post a Comment