Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Timing of late month cold snap just a little later

The appearance of a ridge in East Asia earlier this month was the beginning of a process that will come to fruition by mid next week.   While there is some model debate about how much cold will be delivered and how far south we can expect a period of cooler and stormier weather than we have seen in a while.

Another big development is the return of the negative NAO which dominated during the extraordinary cold period in December and January.  High pressure near NE Canada blocks the eastward progress of weather systems and sends them on a southerly detour.  Notice how the blocking high is expected to develop at the same time that NC and VA will be heating up!  The heat streams northward as part of the High Pressure building process which results in lower pressure, colder temperatures, and potential stormy weather in the places which were most recently warm.
NAO is once again predicted to go negative
Source: NOAA Climatic Prediction Center
I have little doubt that next week will be very exciting in the eastern US.  Stay tuned for details!

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