- Debby is a hybrid storm containing a tropical warm core and a baroclinic frontal structure. The two structures do not appear very united which is good news. The GFS manages baroclinic features in a more helpful manner than tropical.
- Heat ridge centered over TX and AK might have been underestimated as an influence.
- Disturbances that are diving into the Eastern Trough are stronger than I expect at this time of year. A stronger trough pulls the tropical storm north into it.
This water vapor image shows the poorly organized center of Debby and the expansive area of convection that is dousing Florida. The hybrid structure is connected to a stream of moisture originating from the Pacific. Take note that the energy is not building the center of Debby,
|Image Source: Univ of Wisc SSEC|
My suspicion is that the hybrid structure will follow the GFS idea of the storm moving through Florida.The Debby storm center will most likely decouple completely from the baroclinic structure and drift west. Whether the storm generates into a formidable system and impacts LA or TX, dies out, or spins down over land is the next question.