There is a proverbial foot kicking the weather machine. Even though cooler air from Canada is not going to reach us this week the march toward a weak El Nino or at least a whole lot less La Nina is clawing its way forward.
The big tipoff that getting cooler will wait until mid-month is the westward tracking of tropical storms in the West Pacific. This is an indicator of high pressure dominating their eastern seaboard. Therefore the ups and downs of the jet stream lead to a ridge that heats our region.
Here is the track of Tropical Depression #12 in the West Pacific and its forecast indicates that cooler air is not coming until at least late next week - mid-month.
|Source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center|
So, delayed but not denied. Fall, like last year is still coming early. Our only consolation this summer was the fact that a "sort of " trough was over the region much of the season promoting thunderstorm activity but failing to get temperatures to the normal realm. Winter has some questions but generally appears colder than average and a sharp departure from the alleged Winter of 2011-12.