What I would now call an alleged Tropical Storm, Ernesto, was looking good yesterday. The steering flow strengthened late yesterday which both increased his speed and resulted in the center losing its alignement with convection. Further damage to the storm took place when he ran headlong into dry air. Now it takes imagination to see more than a strong tropical wave.
Ernesto's central pressure has been a bit unconventional for a tropical storm. His lowest pressure has been near 1006 MB, not all that impressive. His winds and cyclonic spin were baroclinically enhanced by high pressure located N and another W of the system. Now that those relationships are weakening, Ernesto has to power himself via tropical means (oceanic heat) if he wants to succeed going forward.
Here is a Water Vapor image showing Ernesto (South) and an open Tropical Wave affecting FL. So, why would Ernesto not simply be a bigger version of the FL Tropical Wave?
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| Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC |
Being weaker or non-existent "Ernesto" will track most west and will eventually impact southern Mexico and Belize. If anything substantial finds its way into the Bay of Campeche then it may be possible for a storm to be worthy of a name.
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