Sunday, August 26, 2012

TS Issac appears to be making the LA Coast his target

Those following me on Facebook know the questions and consternation about the destiny of TS Issac.  At first my thought was that the -SOI from Aug 7 - 15 would have successfully introduced a progressive weather pattern thus turned the storm toward the east coast of FL and the SE Coast.  It appears that 2 years  of blocked weather patterns are not easily swept away.

The biggest winner so far in determining the TS Issac track has been  David Tolleris correctly chose the Central Gulf as the target zone.  Now that Issac is past the disruption of dry air and Hispaniola + Cuba we will now see the various tools used to determine the track of the system become more accurate.

In the Water Vapor image below I highlighted the frontal system stretching across the middle of the country and the current direction of the moisture plume preceding Issac.  Eventually Issac's circulation will be influenced by the front and be turned right.  The question is whether that influence and the weakness between the Bermuda High and the Inland heat ridge draws the storm sooner or later.

Source: Univ of Wisconsin SSEC
There are good reasons to be fearful for the whole region. Not only is New Orleans likely to be affected to some extent, there are a great deal of Refinery assets at risk,   Gasoline prices are already exorbitant.  Outages in the limited US Refinery capacity would seriously impact the price of gasoline and other oil based products.

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