Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Are you dreaming of a White Christmas?

A major storm which hit California with heavy rain and mountain snow is now threatening Colorado with high elevation totals ranging 3-8 feet!  It will continue to traverse the southern US toward a date with destiny, an east coast nor'easter.

The European model has been very consistent in predicting a major snowstorm for the entire east coast,  The most recent run below depicts a deepening storm and potential for historic snow totals here in NC and up the eastern seaboard.
ECMWF forecast slow moving major winter storm Dec 25-26
Unlike last week there are key reasons to expect a major event.
  • There is a real storm in progress which is proving itself to be extremely powerful.
  • The Southern Oscillation Index dipped on Dec 10-11.  Perfect timing.
  • Consistent ECMWF output places the storm and other key features like a Newfoundland Low and a TN Valley upper level system in perfect positions.
  • A negative but rising NAO means that an offshore ridge of high pressure will turn the storm system up the coast and merge with the northern jet stream rather push out to sea.
Therefore the incoming systems passes the new "Basics" test that this past weekend's event failed.  I will keep you posted as the situation develops.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks, Dean! I'll be checking back in. We were hoping to travel to VA for Christmas, if we get out of Chicago with the storm predicted here. -Renee