Friday, December 17, 2010

Saturday night's snow or ice affecting only parts of NC

There are lessons in every tough event.  This one had model outcomes ranging from out to sea to burying Central NC and VA in snow.  Even today the most likely solutions are different than yesterday.  The lesson is: if models cannot get focused on a storm system, maybe there is not a well defined weather system to "see".

Therefore I take a back to basic approach:
  1. The SOI 15 days ago was steady in the upper 20's.  No leaps or bounds to signal a globally supported event.
  2. December is not favored for significant snow here in Central NC.  Yes it can happen but it is rare.
  3. Notice the lack of definition in the three waves which are approaching our region.  I would prefer to see at least one circulation.  Also the Gulf of Mexico is not being generous with energy at all.

Source: University of Wisconsin SSEC
Therefore this back to basics approach can agree with the idea of a small scale event like the winter weather that we have seen so far.  I agree with other forecasts which make this a NC only storm system and includes little or no icy precipitation, certainly well below the 4" snow or  .25" ice Winter Storm criteria. 

In other news.  My Christmas present to you will be a corrected Winter Outlook!

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