Now that today's snow, ice, and rain are behind us it is time to take advantage of a clearer look at the potential winter storm Saturday night and Sunday which is capable of dropping a serious snowfall. Today, models have trended west and depict a stronger system. An outcome like this is not yet a certainty but could indicate 3-5" of snow.
|Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) indicates a|
a mean precipitation total near .5" in 12 hours.
|Source: NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory|
Therefore I expect the storm to be close to the coast and have great concern that winter storm snowfalls in excess of 4" will blanket Central NC and VA this weekend. There will be plenty of cold air available and a real chance for a rapidly intensifying system as it moves up our coast targeting the mid-Atlantic States.
Could something go wrong and cancel the snowstorm? Yes, it is an unconventional setup and the system could do as many have done in the past .... blow out to sea or focus its snow on eastern NC and VA. Another possibility is that the storm system could fail to progress far enough north to reach the negative AAM region and thus be weaker and progress quickly out to sea. Finally, AAM is measured 2 days in the past. Could the negative region no longer extend this far south?