Friday, December 24, 2010

Winter Storm Watch issued for NE 2/3 of NC

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for the NE 2/3 of NC.

The developing storm system that is the focus of so much mayhem continues its progress through the southern US.   There have been few situations which have caused me so much consternation because of issues related to the extremely variable model output and potential data quality issues.  This whole adventure started when the highly respected European Model (ECMWF) outputted 3 days worth of consistent east coast megastorm projections.    Since then the projections have digressed into a soap opera which is emotionally draining to say the least.

Despite the fact that there are data issues in this evening's model runs the actual images suggest that a stronger slower southern storm is present than expected and that a westward bias in the track projections need to be factored in.  Here is the current water vapor image from Univ of Wisconsin SSEC:
The 3 systems are headed for a merger along the eastern seaboard.
I saw the strong/severe thunderstorm activity and the tight circulation as a potential issue earlier today.  Now that the activity has reached the Gulf of Mexico and is maintaining itself there is evidence that this system may be strong enough to be pulled in closer to our coast and spread significant snow well inland.

Tomorrow morning I will check on the storms progress and make adjustments as needed including ramifications for Central VA.

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