Monday, April 11, 2011

Concerned about damaging severe weather Friday-Saturday

It has been interesting trying to figure out what form the amplification signal provided by the March 31 and April 1 surge in the SOI.  Finally there is some model agreement on a scenario that I think fits the current climate's tendency for wild weather events.

An intense storm system is expected to deepen over the central Plains and move NE dragging both upper level cold and a strong frontal system through our region. It is bad enough that a cold front is going to ram into unseasonably warm air.  Upper level cold enhances probabilities of hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes.

Here are 2 projections of what could happen in the Friday evening - Saturday time frame:

  • GFS - Depicts a deepening system headed to the Great Lakes with a negatively tilted, trailing front which would bring the biggest risk of severe weather to VA and points north.

  • ECMWF - Storm follows a track just south of the Great Lakes to the NE US.  This scenario has more cold air behind it.
We will need to keep an eye on the situation this weekend.  Another update will occur as we get closer to the event.

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