An intense storm system is expected to deepen over the central Plains and move NE dragging both upper level cold and a strong frontal system through our region. It is bad enough that a cold front is going to ram into unseasonably warm air. Upper level cold enhances probabilities of hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes.
Here are 2 projections of what could happen in the Friday evening - Saturday time frame:
- GFS - Depicts a deepening system headed to the Great Lakes with a negatively tilted, trailing front which would bring the biggest risk of severe weather to VA and points north.
- ECMWF - Storm follows a track just south of the Great Lakes to the NE US. This scenario has more cold air behind it.