Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Summer Outlook may be going down in flames

The above image from the University of Wisconsin SSEC shows the connection between the tropics and Pacific Jet Stream.  Larry Cosgrove regularly reports on this connection and how it leads to Winter cold or in this case Summer heat here in the east.

While this connection exists regardless of the other features of the weather pattern described in my summer outlook heat will dominate the east.  The good news is that the westerly winds aloft near the equator (+QBO) have been in the process of being reversed.  Therefore I do not see a repeat of 2010's fiery furnace.  It will take some additional time to retrogress what will become a mid-summer dominant eastern heat ridge into the west.

I still expect the worst of the hurricane activity to menace the eastern seaboard.  Once equatorial winds aloft turn easterly (-QBO) it will favor tropical development.

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